Will Crocket: The end of the DSLR starts now (or Tuesday when GH3 ships)

Discussion in 'Micro 4/3 News and Rumors' started by dav1dz, Dec 3, 2012.

  1. dav1dz

    dav1dz Mu-43 Top Veteran

    926
    Nov 6, 2012
    Canada
    [ame=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyrGdHClmFI&feature=player_embedded]The End of the DSLR Starts Now. - YouTube[/ame]
     
    • Like Like x 4
  2. gsciorio

    gsciorio Mu-43 Top Veteran

    636
    Dec 29, 2011
    Miami, FL
    No surprise that DSLRs are going bye-bye. I'm not saying all mirrorless will be m43 but the mirror? Well its over and believe me, behind closed doors Canon, Nikon, Pentax, Sony they are all trying to figure out what the heck to do cause the see the end of the DSLR era also.
     
  3. Zariell

    Zariell Mu-43 Top Veteran

    535
    Sep 28, 2012
    Bountiful, UT
    I'm a fan of Will Crocket, and shoot smarter.com, however I don't think that the mirror-less camera is going to kill mirrored cameras anytime soon. Don't get me wrong I'm 100% mirror-less and I'm happy, but I still think that the evf is not up to the quality of a SLR, my E-M5 is nice but it is nowhere near as nice as my old Canon 1D's viewfinder. Do I think eventually they might? Absolutely but I don't think Canon or Nikon has anything to worry about in the near future.
     
  4. arad85

    arad85 Mu-43 Veteran

    477
    Aug 16, 2012
    Yes. It was the 35-100 (and 12-35) that got me to sell my full frame Canon equipment (and end up with a bit in the bank too). My 35-100 arrived today - cost me less new than the Canon F4 70-200 IS did second hand (yes, the F4).....

    Other than depth of field, the quality improvements just aren't there for bigger sensors IMHO. u4/3 is "nearly" the same size sensor as APS-C and the lenses are tiny by comparison, together with seemingly better resolution.
     
  5. bartjeej

    bartjeej Mu-43 Regular

    50
    Oct 9, 2012
    i can't really stand the way that guy is talking to me like I'm a child, so I stopped watching half way through, but yeah the GH3 does look like it could work for many pro's.
     
  6. LeoS

    LeoS Mu-43 Top Veteran

    517
    Aug 6, 2012
    Theoretically, his view is correct.

    But the real market moves in interesting ways... DSLR already has lots of momentum in terms of ecosystem, supply chain, brand names etc.. and most of all, the hardest will be to change people's perspective... their faith, so to speak.

    It's just like how Linux and OSX has been poised to take over Microsoft Windows' marketshare for the last decade.

    PS: Don't get me wrong... I do wish mirrorless (or rather, m43) would takeover the camera world... and I also wished that Linux/OSX would take over the MS Windows dominancy back then. Heh.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. Just Jim

    Just Jim Mu-43 Top Veteran

    941
    Oct 20, 2011
    meh.. I doubt that.

    This entire argument is based on money making potential for a pro photographer to turn to cinematographer as added value skill set. A dumb argument every time I hear it. These are two sometimes intercrossed disciplines. A good photographer does not inheritly make you a good cinematographer. vice versa. Also the conditions that can create a good video are not equal to the conditions that create good a photo, unless we all go back to hot lights, and take up LED panels. Completely eviscerating the comparable discresion of flash for event photography.

    Should make weddings fun... lol. Or maybe pro's can start making videos of portrait shoots...

    The argument for mirrorless is valid... but man that "hybrid" thing is just irks me.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. gsciorio

    gsciorio Mu-43 Top Veteran

    636
    Dec 29, 2011
    Miami, FL
    Don't be irked, practice embracing new areas to express yourself and be chill. Video pinup shot the same time I shot a still. <iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/22155084?title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;badge=0&amp;color=ffffff&amp;autoplay=1&amp;loop=1" width="400" height="710" frameborder="0" webkitAllowFullScreen mozallowfullscreen allowFullScreen></iframe>
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. dhazeghi

    dhazeghi Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Aug 6, 2010
    San Jose, CA
    Dara
    It's not that hard to make a mirrorless that looks and behaves like a DSLR. The only thing they really need to perfect is PDAF off the main sensor, and that problem is already more than half-solved.

    On the flip side, the triumph of mirrorless doesn't necessarily say anything about the success of m4/3 or other short-register mounts. A mirrorless EF or F mount camera is an evolutionary, not revolutionary step.

    Marketing aside, manufacturers have good reasons to go to mirrorless as it minimizes the mechanical components needed in manufacturing which makes for lower parts and labor costs.
     
  10. RobWatson

    RobWatson Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Never under estimate the power of brand loyalty and the power or persuasion that marketing has drilled into the public head. Just the other day a friend of mine that has been a photo enthusiast for decades was dumbstuck and befuddled when I broke out the EP-1 and used a radio controlled flash. He thought the PEN was an old film camera and all the usual - "Is that a Canon? A Nikon?" as if that was all there was in the camera world.

    Even if MFT comes out with a technically superior in all respects system how is the purchasing public going to ever know or believe? 22 shopping days left ...
     
    • Like Like x 2
  11. Jonathan F/2

    Jonathan F/2 Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Aug 10, 2011
    Los Angeles, CA
    Love my E-M5, but DSLRs aren't going nowhere. There are things that my Nikon bodies just do better. Saying that, both are used in conjunction for specific task.
     
  12. drewbot

    drewbot Mu-43 Top Veteran

    702
    Oct 21, 2011
    Toronto, ON
    You mean I shouldn't be saving my pennies for a used D700?
     
  13. Just Jim

    Just Jim Mu-43 Top Veteran

    941
    Oct 20, 2011
    And you would be able to package and sell that on a regular basis enough to make the ROI worth anything after education, equipment and time? Meh.

    As personal expression, and art fine. As a business venture as argued in the video? I don't believe it's a wise decision to be basing your future equipment purchases on optional package upsells that are going to require massive new overhead.
     
  14. With_Eyes_Unclouded

    With_Eyes_Unclouded Mu-43 All-Pro

    Apr 17, 2012
    Vassilios
    As already noted, from a technical standpoint: PD-AF on sensor, "almost" there, would be sorted in 2013. EVF, for many of us it is already a better choice than OVF, next versions from Sony and Epson would make even die-hard OVF users to consider them. Again in 2013 I think.

    But market inertia wouldn't make things so easy. Mirror-flapping cameras will continue to sell as long as Canonikon decides to sell them.

    I believe Sony will introduce a completely mirrorless (non-SLT) full-frame, Alpha-mount camera during 2013. Possibly (with help from Olympus on lenses?) they'll introduce a new, short-flange mount in the future or explore the E-mount further.
     
  15. gsciorio

    gsciorio Mu-43 Top Veteran

    636
    Dec 29, 2011
    Miami, FL
    Actually what you're seeing was part of a six week production I shot in 2009 when the 5DMKII came out. I was originally hired to shoot 15 pinups in studio, each with their own built set and when I showed the client a video portrait test they decided to pay to have video shot as well.

    So did I make enough to cover my $2100 investment of the 5DMKII? Yes.

    Here's the stills Pinups | Photographer Giulio Sciorio
     
    • Like Like x 1
  16. Just Jim

    Just Jim Mu-43 Top Veteran

    941
    Oct 20, 2011
    Your accounting is suspect. You forgot to account for education, the oppurtunity cost of what else you could have been doing for that period of time, lighting set ups that will be essentially doubled, and set up builds, and so on that past this one shoot which does not a career make.

    If everyone is going to create sets for you for the rest of career and all you have to do is show up and tap the shutter button after creating a few poses, and go to PP, then yeah that's great. But guess what, most likely now YOU have to build sets, integrate that extra production and cost into your workflow for what is an optional upsell to a session. Is that really the greatest allocation of your expense dollar? If for you the answer is yes that's fine, but it is dangerous to extrapolate that to the market as a whole.

    I will reiterate that the hybrid solution for pro's as presented in the video is NOT a reason why the mirrorless market would decrease the SLR's market share. Primarily because there is simply too much extra overhead added, and poor market oppurtnity past niche markets.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  17. drd1135

    drd1135 Zen Snapshooter

    Mar 17, 2011
    Southwest Virginia
    Steve
    When digital became "good enough", the switch from film was pretty quick. The demise of the DSLR will be much, much slower. Lots of folks like the bigger cameras from a handling perspective.
     
  18. gsciorio

    gsciorio Mu-43 Top Veteran

    636
    Dec 29, 2011
    Miami, FL
    At the time I never shot anything like this so I just billed out to the client and he paid for the set building. Not all jobs are like this. I've shoot most of my hybrid projects on much smaller budgets. Lighting? I used 4 CFL fixtures from BH that added $1000 to the budget (rather then rent which would have cost more).

    It costs nothing for photographers to get over their fears of motion and hit the red button for 10 seconds and editing video can even happen with Photoshop of LR easy.
     
  19. RevBob

    RevBob Super Moderator

    Jun 4, 2011
    NorthWestern PA
    Bob
    It's an interesting piece. I don't know that I agree with his timeline but I like his premise - it may well be the beginning of the end (in practical terms). There will still be diehards who won't give up their DSLR's but there are still people shooting film. :cool:
     
    • Like Like x 1
  20. With_Eyes_Unclouded

    With_Eyes_Unclouded Mu-43 All-Pro

    Apr 17, 2012
    Vassilios
    I guess it's not so much a matter of bigger bodies than bigger and heavier systems overall. E.g. if Canon would come up with a mirrorless version of their 1Dx, it could be just slightly smaller/lighter (mainly slimmer, I guess), but the lenses could be half to two thirds the size/weight.
     
    • Like Like x 2