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What's M43 going to be like in 5 years....

Discussion in 'Open Discussion' started by D7k1, Nov 3, 2018.

  1. D7k1

    D7k1 Mu-43 All-Pro Subscribing Member

    Nov 18, 2013
    instead of saying "it won't be here' (it will), what is our system going to be like.

    Here's what I think:

    Pany and Oly will still a m43 consortium.
    Global Shutter and computational/AI advancements with drive the quality beyond what anyone needs
    We will see 2 or 3 levels: most likely IMHO one prosumer 800-1000 US, Pro Body 1500-1800.

    Will have only 2 FF manufacturers, who that will be I don't know

    APSC except for Fuji will be nonexistent

    Cell Phones will be very good and perhaps we will see a Cellphone that is an M43 body.

    Many bloggers will be long gone:) 

    What does your Chrystal ball say -
     
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  2. Unless computers get massively faster and massively cheaper in the next 5 years, I predict more widespread use of dual IBIS with the biggest improvements in imaging being driven by in-camera software rather than even bigger sensors.

    I'm currently typing on a very fast laptop which just about comfortably handles the resolution available from the EM1.2 should I wish to use it.
     
  3. BamaBoy

    BamaBoy Mu-43 Regular

    Yes, Global shutter and computational advancements will bring M43 up to and exceed levels which we will need. Cellphone integrated with M43 body would REALLY be a game changer... The Millennials WANT the instant communication and sharing features. We need APPS on the M43 platform; how hard can it be to imbed DOF tables or ND tables etc... there is loads of useful info that could be incorporated into an App... What about APPS on a SD card for the second card slot ? Now thats really not a bad Idea... All I know is that M43 is good enough for me now and its only going to get better so WHY switch ? Just go back 5 years and look at the changes we have seen !
     
  4. ArizonaMike

    ArizonaMike Mu-43 Top Veteran

    590
    Jan 19, 2018
    Arizona, USA
    > Will have only 2 FF manufacturers, who that will be I don't know

    I don't think that is right. I do not see either Nikon or Canon going away and they will both have FF for their pros. I think Sony will still be in the FF business since they seem to be doing well enough now.
     
  5. panamike

    panamike Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    Jul 5, 2016
    Lincolnshire UK
    Chinese
     
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  6. It will make ordering stuff easier.
     
  7. D7k1

    D7k1 Mu-43 All-Pro Subscribing Member

    Nov 18, 2013
    Nikon does not have the financial backing that Sony and Canon have, but I still think only two will survive but not sure who.
     
  8. demiro

    demiro Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    Nov 7, 2010
    You'll be able to buy an E-M5 + 17, 25 and 45/1.8 for about $300 on eBay. Your iPhone XV+ will take better photos, but who the hell cares?
     
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  9. alex66

    alex66 Mu-43 All-Pro Subscribing Member

    Jul 23, 2010
    I can see there being at least 3 makers of FF, Leica being as they are.
    8k will have come buy I would not be surprised if the uptake is small as people will realize they don't want the resolution or deal with the massive files.
    Likewise I think less people will go for 40+mp and stick to around 20-24 as they never output big enough to warrant it and see above.
    There will be a leap in other areas of file quality though, higher bit rates, wider colour gamut, increased DR etc.
    The market will shrink significantly more as again more and more people will skip greater generations as what they have is just perfect for them and the leaps are not that big each time.
    Other players will join the m43 group making other forms of camera and perhaps a competitor to PanOly, perhaps Cosina resurrecting another lost brand or the Russians with a Zorki or Fed.
     
  10. Stanga

    Stanga Mu-43 Top Veteran

    665
    Oct 16, 2016
    My Lumia 950 phone can take HDR pictures with a speed and quality that my GX8 and G80 cannot match, especially when it comes to moving objects. I hope M43 has that sorted in the next 5 years.
     
  11. TassieFig

    TassieFig Mu-43 Top Veteran Subscribing Member

    690
    Oct 28, 2013
    Tasmania, Australia
    I don't know about the cameras. Probably like a small super computer that can figure out everything you'd ever need. Not worried about that.
    I'm still waiting for the lens revolution whatever that may be. Liquid, plasma or *something* but we need to move away from heavy, bulky glass. It's so archaic :eek: 
     
  12. I think you are absolutely right about the cameras, but that patch of light which you want to gather still needs to be channelled in to them somehow, which is why phones will still have their limitations. Every optical manufacturer on the planet had been collectively developing lens technology, some for 100s of years (archaic) - none have succeeded in rewriting the physics manuals. I think if tele lenses were going to get much smaller without getting slower or heavier, it would have happened by now.

    Of course, manufacturers could just work around the glass size/weight issue by making the sensors smaller. Who would take such a risk though? :) 
     
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  13. There is another advantage in cameras over even the best phones which no-one else seems to have picked up on.

    You look such a prat standing in the street staring into an lcd screen at arm's length. Viewfinders are simply cooler.
     
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  14. Actually these days often you look more like a prat looking through the view finder of a real camera... people accept phones, cameras not so much.
     
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  15. D7k1

    D7k1 Mu-43 All-Pro Subscribing Member

    Nov 18, 2013
    I wonder if gravitational lensing with small bits of Dark Matter would work to reduce lens size, lenses might be smaller but a lot heavier:) 
     
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  16. StephenB

    StephenB Mu-43 Veteran Subscribing Member

    339
    Aug 29, 2018
    Somerset UK
    Steve
    What's M43 going to be like in 5 years....

    I'm more concerned in what I'll be like in 5 years....if I'm here (on this earth) at all :) 
     
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  17. TNcasual

    TNcasual Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    Dec 2, 2014
    Knoxville, TN
    I want to see a version of the Nikon phase fresnel 500mm made and optimized for mft. Give me that 1000mm equivalent lens smaller than the Oly 300.
     
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  18. ArizonaMike

    ArizonaMike Mu-43 Top Veteran

    590
    Jan 19, 2018
    Arizona, USA
  19. PakkyT

    PakkyT Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Jun 20, 2015
    New England
    I think global shutter we will see very soon and is kind of the easy one. But in 5 years I would like to see sensor technology and the processing behind it be able to do more with the pixels individually. Rather than the exposure of the entire sensor being the same, why not have individual pixels be able to change the exposure? Some sort of intelligence in the camera than analyzes the scene and rather than trying to pick a good compromise overall exposure, that overly bright section can be exposed less and the shadow areas can be overexposed a bit. Or the user can look at the scene on the back of their camera and simply touch an area to tell the camera to under or over expose that area compared to the rest of the shot. Basically one shot HDR photography. You can use it the opposite way as well. Your subject is properly exposed and the background is dark, but say you want the background even darker, you can do that with the sensor adjustment.


    I certainly think mirrored APS cameras are going to go away. Those $500 two lens Nikon/Canon kits you see at Costco probably won't be around much longer. I think as most things move to mirrorless, you might see mirrors become a high end specialized thing, not exactly sure for what, but they will only be used for very specific shooting that really is suited to using the mirror.


    One of the ongoing complains and comparison in m43rs is whose user interface is better or easier to use. Really it is about time for the camera manufacturers to move away from set menus and have a more open and programmable user interface like a mobile phone. Give us access to all the settings but let us set up which ones to see, how they are arranged, number of "home pages" etc. Or even allowing third party overlays and customization. They can still lock down how the settings work if they choose to but at least let us make the access to those settings up to us.


    Ya that is a tough one. There are some science that hasn't changed over time because there hasn't been a way to do it better with current science and materials. But yes if a breakthrough in optics comes about by using optic materials other than rigid plastic and glass, that could be a game changer in lens design. Although I don't see anything happening and then being able to roll out for the consumer level products within five years.

    However how about lens filter features built into the lens using electronics and changeable materials. For example using something like LCD technology or gel materials whose properties can be altered with electricity you can build in neutral density, graduated ND, and polarizing filters directly into the lenses where you can pick no filter or pick the type and the strength through the camera interface and in the case of graduated ones, adjust the tilt, position, and hard vs. soft line. Wouldn't that be awesome! Every lens having a full set of square filters without having to buy, mount, and carry around a holder and a folder of filters.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2018
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