Tony Northrup's new bogus video "Micro Four-Thirds is DEAD"

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Telonson

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The new panasonic organic sensor and Global shutter could be the start of a sensor arms race, so sensor prices could just as easily skyrocket.
Possible, but Panasonic's global shutter appears destined for their highest end video cameras the next few years. Sony, Canon, and others are also working on global shutters. Global shutters have existed for years, but have seen limited use because the downsides of heat and low dynamic range tend to outweigh the upsides.

Also consider that a well designed global shutter would entirely remove the costs of mechanical shutter, all while increasing reliability. For video users, high dynamic range global would be a gift. But for still shooters, mechanical shutters are well proven and do a great job. If the global shutter sensors were priced too highly, then camera companies would continue to use mechanical shutters. The Sony A9 has an extremely fast readout electronic shutter. It's not global, but for many still uses is good enough.
 

50orsohours

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They could. But probably won't devote equal efforts to both systems. Have to imagine L Mount will now receive a large majority of Panasonic's attention, if not a complete attention monopoly.

Camera shipments continue to diminish. CIPA's new report is not great news.

New CIPA September shipment report: Things are still going bad for the camera business
When the system is pretty complete, why would it not get less attention than a new system?

I realize, that a lot of people feed off of negativity, but isn’t there enough m4/3 gear to get the job done? What are you missing personally?
 

50orsohours

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Gosh, he has a lot of money and a lot of followers!
That must mean he's a really special person who knows a lot - like our president! :p
No one claimed that Tony is special. You are making that assumption. I personally didn’t agree with anything in that video except that companies discontinued products or a whole line without announcing it first. And he sure didn’t predict Samsung going out of business with the nx system.
 

50orsohours

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Here are my thoughts on this matter.

Tony Northrup's words, whether he intends them to be or not, have consequences. He has over 1 MLN Subscribers on youtube, which is huge number. You may point out that some popular youtubers have 2, 3, and even 5MLN subscribers and they are just silly people that do stupid human tricks. However, Northrup's channel is photography reviews, stuff that most non-photography geeks (like my wife for example) would find highly boring. So these 1MLN people that took their time to subscribe are the people that actively buy (and sometimes sell) photography equipment. Thus Tony, unlike these other youtubers that deal with silly entertaining issues, in my opinion, has responsibility to think twice and to be really careful what he says, because his words will have consequences. The most immediate consequences to m43 owners will be that your ability to resell your cameras and lenses will be reduced. There will be less people willing to buy your gear, to trade with you, because people will think twice about investing in the 'dying' system.
Lets see what Tony is going to say when the new Olympus camera is out. He uses gh5 cameras for video, em1 mark2 for landscape, I wouldn’t worry too much. Most customers don’t watch gear head YouTube videos. I see a bright future for m4/3
 

spdavies

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No one claimed that Tony is special. You are making that assumption. I personally didn’t agree with anything in that video except that companies discontinued products or a whole line without announcing it first. And he sure didn’t predict Samsung going out of business with the nx system.
"Someone on YouTube with over 1.1 million subscribers. And more money that most of us on this forum. Need to know anything else?"

I was just responding to your implication that all one needs to know about him is he has money and followers -
what were you trying to say?
 
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I kinda who who this guy is, I've seen a few of his videos. But did it occur to anyone he might purposely be saying things to rile up viewers who then re-post the content, thereby increasing his visibility? This is not a new trick.
Although I agree his title is click bait, I appreciate that he has an opinion not just based on emotion and we'll see in a couple of years whether he was right or not. I am personally looking really hard at the X-T3 and A7III but waiting to see what Panasonic and Olympus have to offer early next year. Until then, I'm wearing out the cheap finger grip on my E-P5. :)
 

jyc860923

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Let's not trash talk Tony just yet, it's all about economy, ask yourself why do you buy into (or get out of like I did this year) m43 system, and I assume there are lots of people more insterested in upgrading gears than their own skills (not saying it's wrong) who will constantly look for excuses to make their next smart purchase, and when they do, guess what they'll choose.

M43 perhaps will exist (and eventually die because everything dies), but not as the thing we know it, just like Leica isn't the thing now as it was back then. If you can afford the very best lenses m43 has to offer then congratulations; if you just want a lighter/cheaper alternative to Z7/EOS R/A7/A9, please go buy the Canon 4000D, as the m43 as we have known and loved, won't be anymore.
 

Telonson

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When the system is pretty complete, why would it not get less attention than a new system?
One reason would be to aim the cheaper system towards more price sensitive customers, and the other at customers with more resources. Canon and Nikon have used this strategy to good effect for many years.

The strategy makes sense when sensor cost is a massive part of the bill of materials. So as sensor costs drop, even Canon and Nikon should be expected to discard the strategy, and APS-C with it.

I realize, that a lot of people feed off of negativity, but isn’t there enough m4/3 gear to get the job done? What are you missing personally?
Don't confuse a realistic appraisal of the situation with negativity.

Perfectly happy with my M43 cameras. Plan to use them for years. But not keeping my head in the sand about the format's prospects. While Olympus' plans remain unclear, my expectation is to expect little on the M43 front from Panasonic going forward. If they do announce any new bodies or lenses, it will be a pleasant surprise.

Not because of anything any of the doom sayers or detractors are saying, but because of the pure economics. IMHO, M43 largely existed for the same reason as APC-C. Because sensor costs were a huge portion of the ILC bill of materials. As sensor prices drop, the business case for smaller sensor cameras equally diminishes. And yes, compact body and lens size are a factor for some, but suspect it's much less of a factor among the general camera buying public than is represented here.
 
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50orsohours

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One reason would be to aim the cheaper system towards more price sensitive customers, and the other at customers with more resources. Canon and Nikon have used this strategy to good effect for many years.

The strategy makes sense when sensor cost is a massive part of the bill of materials. So as sensor costs drop, even Canon and Nikon should be expected to discard the strategy, and APS-C with it.



Don't confuse a realistic appraisal of the situation with negativity.

Perfectly happy with my M43 cameras. Plan to use them for years. But not keeping my head in the sand about the format's prospects. While Olympus' plans remain unclear, my expectation is to expect little on the M43 front from Panasonic going forward. If they do announce any new bodies or lenses, it will be a pleasant surprise.

Not because of anything any of the doom sayers or detractors are saying, but because of the pure economics. IMHO, M43 largely existed for the same reason as APC-C. Because sensor costs were a huge portion of the ILC bill of materials. As sensor prices drop, the business case for smaller sensor cameras equally diminishes. And yes, compact body and lens size are a factor for some, but suspect it's much less of a factor among the general camera buying public than is represented here.
I frequent another site that is predominantly dslr based. You wouldn’t believe how many of them are selling their heavy FF systems and switching to m4/3. Weight is a big issue, and m4/3 is the perfect size. Not to mention price.
 

Reflector

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The strategy makes sense when sensor cost is a massive part of the bill of materials. So as sensor costs drop, even Canon and Nikon should be expected to discard the strategy, and APS-C with it.

Don't confuse a realistic appraisal of the situation with negativity.
Again: You're going to have to demonstrate that 135 format sensors are significantly less expensive than APS-C. The way that sensor yields work based on geometry, you will always have nonlinear scaling (read: exponential) as size goes up. 1/2.3" and smaller will laugh all the way to the bank by being double digits or possibly single digit in the future. By the time 135 format sensors drop far under $1k (not the body: the sensor) then everything else will have taken a plunge into double digit or low triple digit land.

You can add a lot of features from hardware improvements like having the equivalent of a flagship smartphone's amount of processing power in a body at that point. Meanwhile the $1k 135 format camera will be more or less an entry level device, probably not sporting a global shutter or fast readout. The smaller sensors? Well, they have a lot to gain, given computational photography is progressing faster than progress made on sensor improvements in recency.
 

Telonson

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By the time 135 format sensors drop far under $1k (not the body: the sensor) then everything else will have taken a plunge into double digit or low triple digit land.
Don't quite get your point. The body encompasses the sensor.

For the past months, the full frame Sony A7 (including its full frame 135 format sensor) has been selling for $798 at all the leading retailers. The A7 II for only a few hundred more.

> You're going to have to demonstrate that 135 format sensors are significantly less expensive than APS-C.

Never suggested they were less expensive. Fully expect they're more expensive. The point is that if the BOM price differential between FF and APS-C is only a few percent, then APS-C no longer makes much sense.

Given that sensors aren't sold at retail, it's incredibly difficult to get actual sensor cost pricing. But a large number of industry insiders agree with Northrup's analysis, that sensor costs are falling rapidly. This, as you'll recall, has been my own contention these past months.

My suspicion is that aside from sensor cost, there isn't much to separate the BOM cost between APS-C, M43, or full frame mirrorless bodies of reasonably equivalent specifications. They all have similar processors, RAM, frames, hardware development, and software development costs.

To sum up the posit: When sensors are extremely expensive, the smaller format cameras have tremendous market viability. But as sensor costs drop, the market viability of the smaller sensor cameras tend to drop with them. And there are numerous indications that sensor costs are seeing sharp price drops.
 

50orsohours

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Don't quite get your point. The body encompasses the sensor.

For the past months, the full frame Sony A7 (including its full frame 135 format sensor) has been selling for $798 at all the leading retailers. The A7 II for only a few hundred more.

> You're going to have to demonstrate that 135 format sensors are significantly less expensive than APS-C.

Never suggested they were less expensive. Fully expect they're more expensive. The point is that if the BOM price differential between FF and APS-C is only a few percent, then APS-C no longer makes much sense.

Given that sensors aren't sold at retail, it's incredibly difficult to get actual sensor cost pricing. But a large number of industry insiders agree with Northrup's analysis, that sensor costs are falling rapidly. This, as you'll recall, has been my own contention these past months.

My suspicion is that aside from sensor cost, there isn't much to separate the BOM cost between APS-C, M43, or full frame mirrorless bodies of reasonably equivalent specifications. They all have similar processors, RAM, frames, hardware development, and software development costs.

To sum up the posit: When sensors are extremely expensive, the smaller format cameras have tremendous market viability. But as sensor costs drop, the market viability of the smaller sensor cameras tend to drop with them. And there are numerous indications that sensor costs are seeing sharp price drops.
Mark my words. The prices of FF cameras are going to go up.
 
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Reflector

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Don't quite get your point. The body encompasses the sensor.

For the past months, the full frame Sony A7 (including its full frame 135 format sensor) has been selling for $798 at all the leading retailers. The A7 II for only a few hundred more.
I love how the A7 is always used as an example because works great as a single statistical point to cherrypick. Strangely, for $800 people haven't stopped buying other cameras and the EOS M is a hot seller for some reason given how uncompetitively priced it is when compared to the A7...

I'm asking about actual modern sensors, not the camera and especially not an older camera that would be more discontinued. Perhaps clearing stock is a thing, given I don't see the A7 just saturating everything with that very competitively priced sensor that does everything better because it is larger. Strange that nobody else sells 135 format cameras for that price too.

Given that sensors aren't sold at retail, it's incredibly difficult to get actual sensor cost pricing. But a large number of industry insiders agree with Northrup's analysis, that sensor costs are falling rapidly. This, as you'll recall, has been my own contention these past months.
Tony Northrop uses a flagship Micro Four Thirds camera body to compare to an entry level 135 format body to determine the sensor price. I too can make flawed arguments and pass them off as legitimate arguments.

My suspicion is that aside from sensor cost, there isn't much to separate the BOM cost between APS-C, M43, or full frame mirrorless bodies of reasonably equivalent specifications. They all have similar processors, RAM, frames, hardware development, and software development costs.
The Nikon Z7 certaily does not have an equivalent buffer and processor as the E-M1II... Let alone the D850. It certainly costs a lot when compared to the D850 and aside from it being mirrorless and having IBIS, it doesn't seem to exactly perform better than the D850 in most regards given it costs more...
 
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ijm5012

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Pretty unfortunate that most chose to attack the messenger rather than the message.
What, the f/2.8 on m43 is not the same as f/2.8 on FF and the images look different? Yeah, we know that and we've known it for a while. The message is still the same, yet somehow people still manage to create great images with m43 cameras.

Now let's have Tony head down to the swamp with Phocal and drag two D5's, a 600/4, and a 300/2.8 around with him all day compared to two E-M1's, a 300/4 PRO, and a 150/2 SHG.
 

50orsohours

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Pretty unfortunate that most chose to attack the messenger rather than the message.
I like Tony, but let’s be fair. The message is pretty far fetched. The real world is not what you see on these forums or on YouTube. The general population, where most of the money is coming from don’t pixel peep or fret over small stuff. In fact, most just shoot JPEGs. Do you really think, that just because of Tony, most everyone is going to sell their m4/3 and invest in huge and more expensive lenses, or hold on to their huge FF kits that they hate carrying around and stick with what they have? To me it is a ridiculous idea. The older population is shedding weight by going to smaller sensor systems. And as the sensor tech is getting better, m4/3 is going to get even better.

M4/3 is fine.

Which lens do you think sells better? That Nikon 600mm f4 at $13000 or the Olympus 300mm f4?
 
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mcasan

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This messenger is a paid entertainer, just like the folks that anchor the news broadcasts. Tony is no stranger to making controversial statements.
 

tkbslc

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What, the f/2.8 on m43 is not the same as f/2.8 on FF and the images look different? Yeah, we know that and we've known it for a while. The message is still the same, yet somehow people still manage to create great images with m43 cameras.
People created great images on Samsung NX and Nikon 1, too. That's irrelevant.

Anyway, I'm not even agreeing with or defending Tony. I just hate reading pages of ad hominem attacks rather than actual rebuttals.
 

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Well your more than likely to be a damned site better than I am with a lot of woodworking.
*You're

Mr. Applied Physicists



:hiding:

:p

People created great images on Samsung NX and Nikon 1, too. That's irrelevant.

Anyway, I'm not even agreeing with or defending Tony. I just hate reading pages of ad hominem attacks rather than actual rebuttals.
The guy created a video called "Micro Four-Thirds is DEAD" and then sheepishly admits it's probably going to be another 5 years. He's inviting all of the flak he's getting for garbage like that.

His argument can be applied to every crop sensor camera line expect probably Fuji, yet MFT is the focus of this video? He claims to not want to steer anyone toward spending money on a dying system, yet has no problem recommending CaNikon FF DSLR cameras, which are most definitely on the way out once the mirrorless mounts are fully developed. That's just off the top of my head after watching the video this morning. Probably the last time he gets my attention
 
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