Tony Northrup again claims MFT is "likely phased-out"

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SteveAdler

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A bit of brainstorming about the costs out loud here as it piqued my interest. It seems your camera was about 1000 € new. Maybe you update it in 3-4 years? Maybe 2 years if it is your main camera and you want best possible photos?

Nowadays as I have an ILC, I will update my phone likely in 3-5 years (depending also if it breaks somehow or battery life gets bad). It costs ~250 €. I use it for basic snapshots where there is no need for quality, internet, some video watching etc. Currently I have Motorola Moto G6, great budget phone.

My cameras will cost 300-600 €, I don't need the latest ones. Lenses of course cost a lot more, but they will also last a long time and keep value okay. I will use a camera likely for 4 years, I did with my first ILC, E-M10 II.

So my camera & phone upgrade in 4 years can make something like 550-850 €. Maybe more if phone or camera breaks earlier, but same can happen to your phone.

So let's see. If you upgrade your phone in 4 years, it would be 1000 €, but I pay much more for lenses (which abilities your phone doesn't have, but you don't need them.) I always have at least one ILC with me like you have a phone, in a bag or pocket and find it no problem.

If you upgrade your phone in 2 years, it will be 2000 € in 4 year period. This would be 1150-1450 € more than my upgrades in same period.

We also have to take into account the resale value of a phone and an ILC, but I don't have good guesses on the differences.

Any comments or problems with my thinking? This is related to the issue that with camera phones you lose the lenses you invested in, but with an ILC system you will keep the lenses when you change the camera. I don't see camera phone lenses free, as they aren't, but they seem "free" for many. People pay big bucks to get a great camera in a phone.
I bought my phone used on eBay last May for $400. The phone goes with me everywhere. It fits in my back pocket, in my cycling jersey, and my blazer breast pocket. The camera comes out far less often, though I enjoy the photos I take with it much more.

But... we here on this board are a privileged minority of consumers who own both Smarthphones and cameras. Billions of people around the world only own Smartphones... with cameras built in. They buy apps and content with their phones and feed a vast market of innovative hardware and software suppliers who see huge profit potential and will continue to invest in incremental and dramatic improvements to those phones to persuade the billions of people to upgrade their phones as often as possible.

That is a market dynamic that will suffocate innovation in the ILC market until its nearly gone in 4-8 years.
 
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pdk42

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Paul with respect, I disagree, you wrong. I disagree with you saying I "speculate". We have been here before. I studied the Olympus 2020 Fin report, did a deep dive to better understand what happened to Olympus from 2008 onwards, spend hours studying how Olympus recovered & turned around the company, I like this stuff and it is a fascinating case study...

If you did the same effort and brushed me off with a loose statement like that I will accept, go back and make sure I did not miss something... but I do not think you did the effort, right?

You can call it an educated guess but pls not lose speculation

On profitability, if you study the past 3-5 fin reports and what Olympus did to turn the imaging business around then it is clear they one of the manufacturers which is the best prepared of all. Yes, there are risks like with all forecasts but I will not list those on a forum format because there are too many completely irresponsible posters that will misuse any info they receive...

If I had to invest pension money and my only choice to select from was camera manufacturers, my money will go to Olympus...
Wow Siegfried - you do have a high opinion of yourself don't you? I wasn't intending to reply to your specific points, but...

I know the doomers like to focus on the 2019 losses when moving the factory to Vietnam, but again with what we know now, that was the best move ever Olympus made...
It wasn't a move Siegfried. Olympus has had a Vietnam factory since 2007. What Olympus did do was to close their factory in Schenzen China (after 27 years operation and a lot of rumours of local bribery). Sure, they transferred some production lines to Vietnam in 2018/19 - but that's just BAU for these sort of companies. It's surely just your speculation that it's the "best move ever Olympus made"?

When you study the Olympus restructure, cost-saving programs, and preparing for the future you will see the EM1X and the EM1 III, or the EM5 III (hate the plastic) fits 100% in their future strategy. The days spending unlimited budgets on R&D is history, market prices and quantities just do not support extravagant developments.
I can't think of any R&D budget in any company that's unlimited (but I see what you're saying). However, I contend that the EM1x, EM1 III and EM5 III developments show that Olympus have actually quite limited budgets and limited scope for manoeuvre. They don't have access to new sensors and they have chosen not to use updated components like improved EVF and rear-screen panels. I think that points to them being resource or cash constrained (that's my speculation !). It's certainly true that all those three cameras you mention are evolutionary not revolutionary and have not had anything like the innovation investment that something like, say, the Nikon Z6/Z7 have had.

This is my personal view but I think Olympus' decision on the X and 2 MKIII releases was good. Improve where it counts and refrain from pleasing tech junkies...
OK - but you admit yourself that it's your "personal view" - sounds like speculation to me!

If I might stick out my head while I know it's taking a huge chance... I have also said from last year when I did a deep dive into Olympus that we will see a Pen F II this year... let's see:
Sticking your head out is fine, as is predicting a Pen F II - but surely all this is speculation?

I think:-
- DSLR is now finally dead - only really specialized camera models will survive
OK - but your opinion. Some (esp sports and wildlife shooters) disagree.

- Canon & Nikon waited too long to take the mirrorless segment serious
Again - your opinion. Seems to me that they're doing pretty well now.

- Only 2 formats have top pro-grade lenses - M43 and full-frame (Fuji has a long way to go)
I'm sure Fuji and their proponents would disagree with that.

- Full frame cameras might go really expensive and M43 economically more interesting
"might go really expensive" - sounds like speculation to me! In any case, the Nikon Z6 and the Sony A7iii are no more expensive than the EM1.3, so you've not exactly got strong evidence to support that.

- The full-frame or sensor size sales argument is losing speed (Tech & better info)
Opinion. And in fact, there are a lot of people out there who wouldn't agree. It's still absolutely and objectively true that bigger sensors give better IQ.

- I read Fuji had a bad year - interesting - the challenge for Fuji is building a full system
"I read...". Where's your source? Speculation?

- Whether people like it or not Sony and Olympus are in a healthy & strong position
You can't be serious! This is Olympus Imaging's cash flow in 2019 - that's a net flow out of 76,000 million ¥ - that's $700m !! By their own admission at this rate they'll be broke in 2 years even ignoring the effects of Covid.

1591294329682.png
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- Panasonic potentially made a big mistake throwing money at full-frame cameras. The economic situation and 2019/2020 camera market conditions were not ready for that. We should hold our thumbs that they make a timely correction and focus again M43...
"potentially made a big mistake" - sounds like an opinion and speculation to me!

- If Panasonic pulls out of M43, I do not think it will hurt Olympus, in fact, it will only help Olympus.
Again - an opinion. It could equally be their demise since the market will consider the format dead. Speculation.

The M43 format and multiple suppliers/manufacturers are strong enough and I would not be surprised when Panasonic pulls out that another will not quickly fill that space...
Speculation.

Think about the Canon R5 and try and see the strategy behind that. The way I see this is, the imaging division is asking the video division to OK video some functionality to bail out imagining division. If the video div. OK that, the question still is, so what? What does Canon like to achieve with the R5 and what is the next step? Do they expect all manufacturers to start packing their cameras with more and more goodies to hopefully hit a segment that will use it... I know this might sound a little light - but think about it, what on earth was Canon thinking when they decided the market is craving for 8K? To me, the R5 looks like a panic signal...
"The way I see it", "I think", "If the video div. OK", "this might sound a little light" - all sounds like speculation to me!

PS. When I say Olympus is strong - don't look at now or today, project 1 then 2 then 3 years. From their 2020 fin report its clear their pricing, net pricing, and price/performance ratio is healthy. The current new range have most likely good margins for good reason.
How can you possibly know the margin on these products?, or be able to project 1 or 2 years into the future? - Speculation!

The factory is done and running. New products are moving plus more new in 2020 is even better. They planned break-even in 2021.
Again, all speculation. Planned break-even means nothing.

Chances are if the markets do not break down completely that it will only conitnue to improve for Olympus.
Why? Most shrinking markets split into two - cheap, low-end and high, upper-end with the middle squeezed out. Olympus is in the middle.

When you do the same summary for other manufacturers, what will it look like?
Dunno - but you can be sure it'll be speculation there too!!
 
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RS86

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That is a market dynamic that will suffocate innovation in the ILC market until its nearly gone in 4-8 years.
Well I understand your points, but you don't seem to understand my points on how a camera in a phone is severely limited in many ways no matter what technology they come up with.

So I could make a bet on this that ILC's will be in usage for pro's and enthusiasts for a long time, no way they will be nearly gone in 4-8 years. But I'm not a betting guy.

ILC's won't of course sell as much (unless they also will come up with some technology jump), but there will be always those who need their qualities which phones just don't and likely can't have, like ergonomics, physical controls, EVF etc.
 

Keeth101

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Well .... Clickbait Northrup has succeeded for himself and for his sponsors!

He's got everyone talking about him and looking at his site once again.

Why do people keep falling for it all ...... every single time.:dash2: :dash2: :026:
 

CO_yeti

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I doubt it. There is nothing wrong with the mount and standard. It was ahead of its time and doesn't have any performance issues. The sensor behind the mount is a separate issue.

It's open so other companies can come in and develop if Oly or Pana pull out. But I don't see that happening. They can just slow down releases and circle the wagons so to speak.
 

RS86

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I doubt it. There is nothing wrong with the mount and standard. It was ahead of its time and doesn't have any performance issues. The sensor behind the mount is a separate issue.

It's open so other companies can come in and develop if Oly or Pana pull out. But I don't see that happening. They can just slow down releases and circle the wagons so to speak.
This is my thoughts too. Why would they get out when they have a whole system out there? More likely that they would just make their company more efficient in the changing atmosphere.

They can just keep selling their arsenal and keep developing some cameras and lenses. The lens line-up is fully capable already, not "needing" very much.
 

John King

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To be fair, it's hard to make a call on your EM1. :wink:
Too true :).

However, my phone is all but indestructible, meets IP68, has excellent signal reception (very important in Australia, it works in a lift, or in an all metal refrigerator ) and the battery lasts 2 full days with about 30% to spare (4 days if I turn off a convenience program that uses the screen). It has decently fast WiFi at 325 Mbps.

It also has a multiple lens camera which takes respectable photos if I can 1) see the screen, and 2) hold the bloody thing steady.
 

alex66

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Personally I think that you should use whatever works for you at a given time, phone cameras do not work for me at all but the wife only now uses a phone. Currently, I am just using two point and shoots a Canon G9x and a Panasonic TZ60 with a strong preference for the latter. Do I care that m43 might die off no not really it works for me and if people start selling off so stuff get cheep I will stock pile or move on to something that fills my needs. The only worry would be if the market ends up with just larger cameras and lenses, m43 has plenty of good options for a small agile kit none of the others come close. I do not watch Northrope's videos as it is all too gear focused and the style of delivery winds me up, would rather spend my time listening to talks or conversations between photographers about their art. So I can recommend looking on the YouTube channels of Magnum, The Martin Parr Foundation and Leica has had some nice ones.
 
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Wow Siegfried - you do have a high opinion of yourself don't you? I wasn't intending to reply to your specific points, but...


It wasn't a move Siegfried. Olympus has had a Vietnam factory since 2007. What Olympus did do was to close their factory in Schenzen China (after 27 years operation and a lot of rumours of local bribery). Sure, they transferred some production lines to Vietnam in 2018/19 - but that's just BAU for these sort of companies. It's surely just your speculation that it's the "best move ever Olympus made"?


I can't think of any R&D budget in any company that's unlimited (but I see what you're saying). However, I contend that the EM1x, EM1 III and EM5 III developments show that Olympus have actually quite limited budgets and limited scope for manoeuvre. They don't have access to new sensors and they have chosen not to use updated components like improved EVF and rear-screen panels. I think that points to them being resource or cash constrained (that's my speculation !). It's certainly true that all those three cameras you mention are evolutionary not revolutionary and have not had anything like the innovation investment that something like, say, the Nikon Z6/Z7 have had.


OK - but you admit yourself that it's your "personal view" - sounds like speculation to me!


Sticking your head out is fine, as is predicting a Pen F II - but surely all this is speculation?


OK - but your opinion. Some (esp sports and wildlife shooters) disagree.


Again - your opinion. Seems to me that they're doing pretty well now.


I'm sure Fuji and their proponents would disagree with that.


"might go really expensive" - sounds like speculation to me! In any case, the Nikon Z6 and the Sony A7iii are no more expensive than the EM1.3, so you've not exactly got strong evidence to support that.


Opinion. And in fact, there are a lot of people out there who wouldn't agree. It's still absolutely and objectively true that bigger sensors give better IQ.


"I read...". Where's your source? Speculation?


You can't be serious! This is Olympus Imaging's cash flow in 2019 - that's a net flow out of 76,000 million ¥ - that's $700m !! By their own admission at this rate they'll be broke in 2 years even ignoring the effects of Covid.

View attachment 827588


"potentially made a big mistake" - sounds like an opinion and speculation to me!


Again - an opinion. It could equally be their demise since the market will consider the format dead. Speculation.


Speculation.


"The way I see it", "I think", "If the video div. OK", "this might sound a little light" - all sounds like speculation to me!


How can you possibly know the margin on these products?, or be able to project 1 or 2 years into the future? - Speculation!


Again, all speculation. Planned break-even means nothing.


Why? Most shrinking markets split into two - cheap, low-end and high, upper-end with the middle squeezed out. Olympus is in the middle.



Dunno - but you can be sure it'll be speculation there too!!
WOW, what a reaction, little sensitive or is this normal for you when someone disagrees with you? I guess we have to wait and see who did their homework and who reads DPR and is the king of rumors?

PS. Polite feedback:- The mess you created above, horribly structured... try the rule of thirds next time 😎
 

pdk42

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WOW, what a reaction, little sensitive or is this normal for you when someone disagrees with you? I guess we have to wait and see who did their homework and who reads DPR and is the king of rumors?

PS. Polite feedback:- The mess you created above, horribly structured... try the rule of thirds next time 😎
Siegfried - my objection was to the arrogance of your response - "I disagree, you wrong", "but I do not think you did the effort, right?". I've absolutely no problem at all with your opinions and I have zero problem with people disagreeing with me. However, disagreements needs to be argued on their merits and not by calling people "wrong", or telling them that they've not put the effort in. You absolutely cannot substantiate much of what you said in your opinion piece on Olympus's positioning so you cannot say that "I'm wrong". Sure you have an opinion and we can argue the merits of that opinion, but I'm no more "wrong" than you are. And then to put the icing on the cake, you say that I've not put the effort in - but you know nothing about how much study I've done, nor on what knowledge I have. That's just (misplaced) arrogance.

So, that's why I decided to do a point-by-point rebuttal.

And for goodness sake, will you please stop going on about DPR and "rumours" - it's getting tiring.
 
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Siegfried - my objection was to the arrogance of your response - "I disagree, you wrong", "but I do not think you did the effort, right?". I've absolutely no problem at all with your opinions and I have zero problem with people disagreeing with me. However, disagreements needs to be argued on their merits and not by calling people "wrong", or telling them that they've not put the effort in. You absolutely cannot substantiate much of what you said in your opinion piece on Olympus's positioning so you cannot say that "I'm wrong". Sure you have an opinion and we can argue the merits of that opinion, but I'm no more "wrong" than you are. And then to put the icing on the cake, you say that I've not put the effort in - but you know nothing about how much study I've done, nor on what knowledge I have. That's just (misplaced) arrogance.

So, that's why I decided to do a point-by-point rebuttal.

And for goodness sake, will you please stop going on about DPR and "rumours" - it's getting tiring.
Copied from your own great polite replies.... ouch 🤩

"was to the arrogance of your response"
"cannot substantiate much of what you said"
"but you know nothing"
"That's just (misplaced) arrogance"
"you do have a high opinion of yourself"
"sounds like speculation to me!"
"but surely all this is speculation?"
"And then he comes back with that arrogant nonsense! Arghhh...."
"will you please stop going on"

Question - will the above examples up your sensitivity level? Are these the phrases I should avoid? Pls be so kind and ask your support group if they also OK if I avoid the above lines?

😎

Siegfried
 
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absolutic

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Robin Wong has zero credibility in my book. Has not found a single Olympus product he does not love. At least he was honest in one of his recent videos, in which he basically said his job is to help Olympus sell cameras and lenses. That's why he is Olympus photographer. Brands make alliance with photographers to help them sell products. Either these photographers produce or not. When I asked in a youtube comment exactly how Olympus pays him, i.e, what is his end of the deal, he ignored my comment. He says he gets to play with 'any Olympus product' he wants. That does not impress me. Even if person can't afford to buy all the lenses he/she wants, at least in the US, I can rent any Olympus product from countless online or in-person rentals. It is not a big deal.
As for Northrups, Ill listen to them from purely entertainment standpoint, I don't think I've ever learned anything from them.
 

Pluttis

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Robin has always been open and honest with his connection(he used to work for Olympus as a product specialist) to Olympus and the love for their cameras...he is a part of Olympus visionary program.
 

pdk42

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Copied from your own great polite replies.... ouch 🤩

"was to the arrogance of your response"
"cannot substantiate much of what you said"
"but you know nothing"
"That's just (misplaced) arrogance"
"you do have a high opinion of yourself"
"sounds like speculation to me!"
"but surely all this is speculation?"
"And then he comes back with that arrogant nonsense! Arghhh...."
"will you please stop going on"

Question - will the above examples up your sensitivity level? Are these the phrases I should avoid? Pls be so kind and ask your support group if they also OK if I avoid the above lines?

😎

Siegfried
Well, let's just leave it shall we? I guess we just have our brains wired differently!
 

RS86

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Robin has always been open and honest with his connection(he used to work for Olympus as a product specialist) to Olympus and the love for their cameras...he is a part of Olympus visionary program.
Exactly. I have also have seen him criticise Olympus many times with him hoping Olympus to change something or step-up.

Of course anyone who loves a system (and especially has made a living with it for a long time) will mostly praise it.

Any brand ambassador has certain requirements from the company. Very obvious. But Olympus let's him criticise too. Critique is a great possibility for development for those who can handle it.

Of course not everyone will look that far, and jumping to conclusions seems a part of human nature.

I just love that I have this free learning material from many great Youtubers. Doesn't matter if "visionary/ambassador" who gets some benefits.

For example former (40 year) Nikon user and current Olympus Visionary Joe Edelman paid all his stuff. Now he gets money from teaching at Olympus events etc. OMG!

Similar with Teppo Haapoja, but he is not Visionary for Olympus, but tries it from his own money.

People usually become ambassadors after they themselves paid and used the system for a long time. They earned it through their hard work.
 
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