Tony Northrup again claims MFT is "likely phased-out"

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RS86

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News Flash: I don't work for you.
No but you make predictions on a public forum so it is usually assumed you want to discuss rather than just exclaim.

How do you work around the battery life of phones btw? Let's say you shoot all day in bright light and have screen brightness on full.

My phone needs charging daily even when I don't shoot much. Let's also assume you want to be able to use the phone for other things.

Anyway if you don't want to debate the points I must assume I am right.
 

SteveAdler

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No but you make predictions on a public forum so it is usually assumed you want to discuss rather than just exclaim.

How do you work around the battery life of phones btw? Let's say you shoot all day in bright light and have screen brightness on full.

My phone needs charging daily even when I don't shoot much.

Anyway if you don't want to debate the points I must assume I am right.
I take your point. Maybe bring a charging brick?
 

SteveAdler

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Are you suggesting bigger sensors or ability to have very wide range of lenses will become obsolete "soon"?

Also do you think the controls and ergonomics of phone camera will match ILC's "soon"?

What about phone screen showing enough to frame a photo in bright light vs. an EVF? Soon?

Also will phones lenses not go to waste when the phone breaks somehow? Or battery dies?

I had to buy new phone because it had one part which broke (under half year after warranty) with the model often and repairing was very expensive (LG G4 with OIS). (Hint: they can design them to break so people keep buying new ones.)
I have a Samsung Galaxy S9+. Not the latest phone, but still a great camera.
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ThereAndBackAgain

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Tony who? Oh that irrelevant Tony.
I watched a Northrup video years ago and I have no intention to repeat the experience. Not because he hates mft with a passion. Not because his channel is just clickbait and he spouts adverts as if he believes them. I shan't watch another one because he really is bloody boring and I think I might die if I do.
 

GBarrington

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I'm picturing a bunch of folks in bright orange vests holding phones at a future "major sporting event" in the post-DSLR world. Funny image. It just won't be the same without those big white and black lenses from C and N. :)
Us old guys will still have big white lenses, we'll just stick them on the end of our phones and call the remaining m43s cameras "cute".
 

pdk42

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I have seen the video the other day. As a rule, I do not listen to Tony. His 3 group manufacturers and each likely chance to make it is based on what I believe popular opinion. He seems to try and make an educated prediction but he does not want to offend those opinions, he values important?

This is one of the parts that make me think he is completely disconnected and his scenario is nothing else but a wish list... He refers to the EM1X and the EM1 II or III and then talks about the 20MP sensor and the AF.

The camera market is changing fast, formats are changing and demand has decreased sharply. Any marketing department worth anything would have tracked this trend in advance. To make things worse was the unexpected virus outbreak. We know Olympus has been in a 10 year restructure and survival battle. This bad luck might become the most powerful experience and the reason they should get out on the side in good shape.

I know the doomers like to focus on the 2019 losses when moving the factory to Vietnam, but again with what we know now, that was the best move ever Olympus made...

When you study the Olympus restructure, cost-saving programs, and preparing for the future you will see the EM1X and the EM1 III, or the EM5 III (hate the plastic) fits 100% in their future strategy. The days spending unlimited budgets on R&D is history, market prices and quantities just do not support extravagant developments.

This is my personal view but I think Olympus' decision on the X and 2 MKIII releases was good. Improve where it counts and refrain from pleasing tech junkies...

Tony seems to have missed all this. Just the fact that he listed Nikon in his A group shows that he has no feel or understanding of what is taking place in the market...

If I might stick out my head while I know it's taking a huge chance... I have also said from last year when I did a deep dive into Olympus that we will see a Pen F II this year... let's see:

I think:-
- DSLR is now finally dead - only really specialized camera models will survive
- Canon & Nikon waited too long to take the mirrorless segment serious
- A good lens offer is extremely important for survival - only time gets this right
- Even if you release 20 lenses in one year you need consumer acceptance = time
- Only 2 formats have top pro-grade lenses - M43 and full-frame (Fuji has a long way to go)
- Full frame cameras might go really expensive and M43 economically more interesting
- The full-frame or sensor size sales argument is losing speed (Tech & better info)
- I read Fuji had a bad year - interesting - the challenge for Fuji is building a full system
- Whether people like it or not Sony and Olympus are in a healthy & strong position
- Panasonic potentially made a big mistake throwing money at full-frame cameras. The economic situation and 2019/2020 camera market conditions were not ready for that. We should hold our thumbs that they make a timely correction and focus again M43...
- If Panasonic pulls out of M43, I do not think it will hurt Olympus, in fact, it will only help Olympus.

The M43 format and multiple suppliers/manufacturers are strong enough and I would not be surprised when Panasonic pulls out that another will not quickly fill that space...

Think about the Canon R5 and try and see the strategy behind that. The way I see this is, the imaging division is asking the video division to OK video some functionality to bail out imagining division. If the video div. OK that, the question still is, so what? What does Canon like to achieve with the R5 and what is the next step? Do they expect all manufacturers to start packing their cameras with more and more goodies to hopefully hit a segment that will use it... I know this might sound a little light - but think about it, what on earth was Canon thinking when they decided the market is craving for 8K? To me, the R5 looks like a panic signal...

My 2 cents

Siegfried

PS. When I say Olympus is strong - don't look at now or today, project 1 then 2 then 3 years. From their 2020 fin report its clear their pricing, net pricing, and price/performance ratio is healthy. The current new range have most likely good margins for good reason. The factory is done and running. New products are moving plus more new in 2020 is even better. They planned break-even in 2021. Chances are if the markets do not break down completely that it will only conitnue to improve for Olympus. When you do the same summary for other manufacturers, what will it look like?
I hope you're right Siegfried, but there is a lot of speculation in your post. I'm not personally convinced of Olympus's financial position (nor Nikon's for that matter). They may be predicting break-even in 2021, but they've predicted break-even (and even profit - whoop, whoop) before only to get it hopelessly wrong. As I said though, I really hope you're right. Micro 4/3 is a great format that is so much better than many of the nay-sayers ever admit.
 

Taz trooper

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Honestly, this industry deserves to be destroyed. There are a bunch of smallish brands competing with no open standards. Every brand has its own raw image file format, lens mount, battery size, software stack, and even sensor sizes vary significantly. Warranties and customer service vary significantly.

We would all be MUCH better off with open source camera specifications, sensors we could purchase, install, and upgrade at our own convenience; universal lens mounts, linux based open software stacks, and open raw image file format.... maybe after a brutal industry consolidation, the camera industry will evolve into that and we will all just print our cameras on 3D printers...

:)
Micro 4/3 I thought is the nearest thing to an open standard - multiple camera vendors, multiple lens vendors, on a common lens mount. Whilst it's not open source, the common standard makes it more likely to survive...
 

KevinBarrett

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This guy 🤣 I don’t even know how to feel about him. He doesn’t take that great a picture, it’s unclear if he was ever even a pro? Calling it click bait is insulting to click bait, he basically makes a living on spewing nonsense. I’d trust the opinion of a late night talk show host on cameras before good ole Tony. He makes Ken Rockwell seem like an academic. I still prefer either of them to that raging fat guy and the dude that needs a haircut. Honestly photography YouTube out of all my hobbies has the worst content by far. It’s so awful. The only one I truly love and appreciate as informative is David Thorpe. Most of the rest are either good for entertainment only or are actively obnoxious. That’s most of why I’m so glad this place exists
Advancing Your Photography YouTube channel is great. Primarily focused on the art form rather than gear talk. Very good interviews as well.
 

RS86

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I have a Samsung Galaxy S9+. Not the latest phone, but still a great camera.
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Very nice photo. No doubt camera phones can take those. And for you it clearly works. I can undestand why not wanting to take camera out of bag, and back in, every time you stop somewhere while cycling.

When I'm out photographing, I can go through 3 batteries in 5-8 hours. Even more if I go out earlier. This is about the same mAh as your phone. With phone I would have no phone to use, because the battery will become empty and I would likely miss shots later. And not to mention I like to put up a hammock and be able to read internet once in a while as I'm out and not photograph non-stop.

Some of phone camera problems will be solved if EU will force manufacturers for customers to be able to change batteries (I think I read some speculation about this.) This way you won't have to change your whole phone when the battery dies or empties too soon, and you can have multiple batteries like cameras do.

It will be interesting to see what kind of apparatus will a phone macro setup make. Godox V350 on top of a phone, maybe use it as a handle? Make an articulating screen with some kind of ballhead maybe? At least it won't weight as much. I also like the ability to recover some shadows and highlights using a flash, and with single shot with flash I think camera phone cannot compete. I have a hard time seeing myself photographing macro with a phone in any near future, and it is what I do most.

In my opinion these same problems (I have mentioned some other stuff earlier) exist and will exist for a long time in many photography genres.

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PakkyT

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How fast do those charge? How small and easy to handle is your phone with a brick on a cable attached to your phone?
Depends on the battery pack and your specific phone such as if they both support quick charging or not. But in general I don't think most people would be walking around actively using their phone with the battery pack hooked up to it. Instead the suggestions was for when you are out and about and using your phone heavily, having a battery pack along could help when you have downtime with the phone and you can be charging it (since unlike our cameras, many newer phones have non-replaceable batteries). Such as sitting down to eat and letting it charge or having the phone + pack in your backpack charging while you walk. I know for some people that could be hard since they are almost always staring at their phone, but for many of us, we don't live on or through our phones so it isn't in our hand 24/7.


I have a Samsung Galaxy S9+. Not the latest phone, but still a great camera.
I have the S8 and it takes very nice photos for those scenes where the field of view of your desired photo coincides with the FoV of the camera on your phone. While they are starting to put more lenses on phones to give different FoV and also some trickery where they can use the images from multiple lenses to compile a photo, for the most part where most of us (well me anyway) find the phone fails is the restricted FoV offered. You can not "change lenses" and those little clip on lenses or lens systems with special phone cases to mount the lenses tend to be not a great substitution for an actual camera. But that said, I often will choose my S8's camera over not getting the picture at all.

By the way, a great feature if you have not discovered it is the "Magnifier" widget. For some reason, at least on the S8, this function is not part of the normal Samsung provided camera app. But go to add widgets to your home screen(s) and look for the Magnifier one. Works very well for when you need closer up photos of stuff or even as just a visual aid when looking at something (like trying to read the fine print on your Oly camera battery case). I use it all the time at work for taking shots of details that I want to add to assembly or test procedures.


I hope you're right Siegfried, but there is a lot of speculation in your post.
Which is kind of ironic in the thread all about Northrup being a buffoon when he posts his opinions and speculation where it seems many here then add their own equally unfounded/factual/based on something/based on nothing/wish list-y/etc. (pick a word) take. But then I guess it is OK if you don't do it through a YouTube channel?
 

drd1135

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My sister in law bought a new top of the line iPhone recently. That was too much gold for my liking! Three times what I paid for my then new E-M1 MkI + 12-50! I know which takes better photos ...

So expensive that I will stick to my E-M1 MkI + 12-50 and E-M1 MkII + 12-100.

My (free) $500 smartphone takes decent snaps, if I learn how to use it properly.
To be fair, it's hard to make a call on your EM1. :wink:
 
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I hope you're right Siegfried, but there is a lot of speculation in your post. I'm not personally convinced of Olympus's financial position (nor Nikon's for that matter). They may be predicting break-even in 2021, but they've predicted break-even (and even profit - whoop, whoop) before only to get it hopelessly wrong. As I said though, I really hope you're right. Micro 4/3 is a great format that is so much better than many of the nay-sayers ever admit.
Paul with respect, I disagree, you wrong. I disagree with you saying I "speculate". We have been here before. I studied the Olympus 2020 Fin report, did a deep dive to better understand what happened to Olympus from 2008 onwards, spend hours studying how Olympus recovered & turned around the company, I like this stuff and it is a fascinating case study...

If you did the same effort and brushed me off with a loose statement like that I will accept, go back and make sure I did not miss something... but I do not think you did the effort, right?

You can call it an educated guess but pls not lose speculation

On profitability, if you study the past 3-5 fin reports and what Olympus did to turn the imaging business around then it is clear they one of the manufacturers which is the best prepared of all. Yes, there are risks like with all forecasts but I will not list those on a forum format because there are too many completely irresponsible posters that will misuse any info they receive...

If I had to invest pension money and my only choice to select from was camera manufacturers, my money will go to Olympus...
 

Petrochemist

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To me it's starting to feel like he's going to keep saying this for the next 10+ years until it finally happens. Unlike last time, he also called out multiple other camera mounts. Not that anyone around here agrees with his take on MFT, just expect to see more chatter about "MFT is dead" again.
I hope his channel will die to stop him spouting junk like this. I long since gave up watching him after finding more than half the stuff i saw was highly biased of plain inaccurate.
 

RS86

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Depends on the battery pack and your specific phone such as if they both support quick charging or not. But in general I don't think most people would be walking around actively using their phone with the battery pack hooked up to it. Instead the suggestions was for when you are out and about and using your phone heavily, having a battery pack along could help when you have downtime with the phone and you can be charging it (since unlike our cameras, many newer phones have non-replaceable batteries). Such as sitting down to eat and letting it charge or having the phone + pack in your backpack charging while you walk. I know for some people that could be hard since they are almost always staring at their phone, but for many of us, we don't live on or through our phones so it isn't in our hand 24/7.

I have the S8 and it takes very nice photos for those scenes where the field of view of your desired photo coincides with the FoV of the camera on your phone. While they are starting to put more lenses on phones to give different FoV and also some trickery where they can use the images from multiple lenses to compile a photo, for the most part where most of us (well me anyway) find the phone fails is the restricted FoV offered. You can not "change lenses" and those little clip on lenses or lens systems with special phone cases to mount the lenses tend to be not a great substitution for an actual camera. But that said, I often will choose my S8's camera over not getting the picture at all.

Which is kind of ironic in the thread all about Northrup being a buffoon when he posts his opinions and speculation where it seems many here then add their own equally unfounded/factual/based on something/based on nothing/wish list-y/etc. (pick a word) take. But then I guess it is OK if you don't do it through a YouTube channel?
Can you quick charge with external power source? I don't know, but seems to me that it might be restricted to charging from a wall plug? Or can current power supplies stand such recharging? Also the manufacturers say that quick charging does not effect battery life expectancy, but I have read some speculation about it being a bit otherwise.

Another issue is that every time you plug a recharger to your phone it takes away from the max. possible recharge times, at least that's what I read from current batteries. So if you don't recharge let's say from 40 % until 90 % in one go, then your battery life expectancy is not the best possible. And with phones usually nowadays not having the ability to change battery, this will be a bad thing.

In my opinion people can counter-argue Northrup and point out his earlier shortcomings. Of course attacking his personality is not good behaviour or argumentation.
 

mfturner

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If i could predict consumer behavior i would be retired on investments already lol. If Olympus exits I'll be sad, i enjoy their gear, and expect to buy more. But i don't expect them to exit yet, rightly or wrongly.

I think most people are content with cell phone cameras, but I'm not most people. I view cameras on a continuum between "good for carrying" and "good for using", and the s10+ is slammed all the way to the carrying end, it wins that easily. It is by far my least favorite system for photography. And as @PakkyT says, even with 3 camera lenses on it, the fov is still limited and largely wide angle. It's IQ is disappointing to me also, i think that has to do with the jpeg engine, artifacts are strong at 50% magnification.

But it is my only weather sealed kit at the moment, in pouring rain seeing is terrible anyway so the WA fov is usable, and it is always with me. It holds a large capacity sdcard and Snapseed works well on it, so it is my travel backup and editor also. I will often use its uwa lens instead of mounting the BCL-9 for convenience, although i prefer images from the BCL-9 (the s10+ uwa lens is fixed focus at around 5 feet).

The PM1 is slightly worse for carrying depending on lens, but much better for using. That surprised me, i thought they would be similar, but the single rotary control on the PM1 is surprisingly useful, and i can bbf. The m10.3 is shifted further towards "using", and my old Canon kit even further.
 

PakkyT

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Paul with respect, I disagree, you wrong. I disagree with you saying I "speculate". We have been here before. I studied the Olympus 2020 Fin report, did a deep dive [blah blah blah I am smarter than everyone else yadda yadda yadda]
The arrogance is strong with this one!


Can you quick charge with external power source?
Yes if both the battery pack and the phone support the same fast/quick charging technologies. As a safety measure both have to suport it and there is a way for charger and phone to both indicate to the other that faster charging is safe. Just go to Amazon and do a search for fast charger battery pack or quick charge battery pack and you will see there are a number of them in various sizes and capacities that support quick charging compatible with various phone or tablet models.


Another issue is that every time you plug a recharger to your phone it takes away from the max. possible recharge times, at least that's what I read from current batteries.
The way they rate charge cycles with Li-Ion batteries is number of full charges and partial charges usually count as partial full chargers meaning one full charge from zero to full is the same as 2x from 50% to full. Of course keep in mind that like, for example, light bulbs or our camera's shutters these specs of life are based on an average where most should get you the rated like but there is no gaurantee and you might get half that or twice that or something else. So under normal use where sometimes you are full charging and sometimes you are partially charging I don't think when you choose to charge has much of a factor on the life of the battery so long as you are doing that mix of charging types. On the other hand if you are one of those people who get super nervous and think the world is ending when their phone hits 70% and are always topping off only, that probably isn't the best for your device's battery life.
 

RS86

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I have a Samsung Galaxy S9+. Not the latest phone, but still a great camera.
A bit of brainstorming about the costs out loud here as it piqued my interest. It seems your camera was about 1000 € new. Maybe you update it in 3-4 years? Maybe 2 years if it is your main camera and you want best possible photos?

Nowadays as I have an ILC, I will update my phone likely in 3-5 years (depending also if it breaks somehow or battery life gets bad). It costs ~250 €. I use it for basic snapshots where there is no need for quality, internet, some video watching etc. Currently I have Motorola Moto G6, great budget phone.

My cameras will cost 300-600 €, I don't need the latest ones. Lenses of course cost a lot more, but they will also last a long time and keep value okay. I will use a camera likely for 4 years, I did with my first ILC, E-M10 II.

So my camera & phone upgrade in 4 years can make something like 550-850 €. Maybe more if phone or camera breaks earlier, but same can happen to your phone.

So let's see. If you upgrade your phone in 4 years, it would be 1000 €, but I pay much more for lenses (which abilities your phone doesn't have, but you don't need them.) I always have at least one ILC with me like you have a phone, in a bag or pocket and find it no problem.

If you upgrade your phone in 2 years, it will be 2000 € in 4 year period. This would be 1150-1450 € more than my upgrades in same period.

We also have to take into account the resale value of a phone and an ILC, but I don't have good guesses on the differences.

Any comments or problems with my thinking? This is related to the issue that with camera phones you lose the lenses you invested in, but with an ILC system you will keep the lenses when you change the camera. I don't see camera phone lenses free, as they aren't, but they seem "free" for many. People pay big bucks to get a great camera in a phone.
 

RS86

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Yes if both the battery pack and the phone support the same fast/quick charging technologies. As a safety measure both have to suport it and there is a way for charger and phone to both indicate to the other that faster charging is safe. Just go to Amazon and do a search for fast charger battery pack or quick charge battery pack and you will see there are a number of them in various sizes and capacities that support quick charging compatible with various phone or tablet models.

The way they rate charge cycles with Li-Ion batteries is number of full charges and partial charges usually count as partial full chargers meaning one full charge from zero to full is the same as 2x from 50% to full. Of course keep in mind that like, for example, light bulbs or our camera's shutters these specs of life are based on an average where most should get you the rated like but there is no gaurantee and you might get half that or twice that or something else. So under normal use where sometimes you are full charging and sometimes you are partially charging I don't think when you choose to charge has much of a factor on the life of the battery so long as you are doing that mix of charging types. On the other hand if you are one of those people who get super nervous and think the world is ending when their phone hits 70% and are always topping off only, that probably isn't the best for your device's battery life.
Ah, there are those quick power supplies, great. Doesn't seem very expensive either.

Thanks for the information. I thought I "had" to charge Li-ion in one go, but it isn't so. I checked from one place.

The quick power supply is important as otherwise the battery life might diminish, if you had to go to for example 0-20 % power in one day. So you can recharge once in a while and it isn't so slow.

I'm still interested if quick charging really has no effect on battery life as it seems it warms the phone more, but I need to research it more when I have time. Unless someone can chime in.
 
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