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State of the Industry

Discussion in 'Open Discussion' started by OzRay, Apr 10, 2015.

  1. OzRay

    OzRay Mu-43 Legend

    Jan 29, 2010
    South Gippsland, Australia
    Ray, not Oz
    • Informative Informative x 4
  2. pdk42

    pdk42 One of the "Eh?" team

    Jan 11, 2013
    Leamington Spa, UK
    I think it shows why Oly and the rest are struggling. The collapse of compact cameras is really hurting them. I see long term sucess for Samsung.
     
  3. demiro

    demiro Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Nov 7, 2010
    I saw it, but it was truncated. Crazy to see it to scale.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. wjiang

    wjiang Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Not surprising given that it's sales figures. People replace their phones way more often than their cameras, and often in a household the ratio of devices to people is greater than one, e.g. 1-2x tablets to go around, plus 1x smart phone per person. Main problem I see with using cell phones even as snap shot cameras is that they're just too damn slow to get a shot...
     
  5. OzRay

    OzRay Mu-43 Legend

    Jan 29, 2010
    South Gippsland, Australia
    Ray, not Oz
    I'd say that compacts are more or less dead in the water. Camera phones already rival some compact cameras in regard to image quality and operating performance, not to mention versatility, and you just can't beat the fact that you are far more likely to have a mobile phone in your possession just about all the time.

    However, there will always be a need for high quality and versatile cameras such as DSLRs/ILCs (mirrorless), so the interesting thing is where these two rivals will be in a few years. Looking at the overall difference in numbers (as a percentage of all cameras) at the 2014 mark, there's not a lot of difference between DSLRs and ILCs.
     
  6. demiro

    demiro Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Nov 7, 2010
    I'm interested to see how much and how quickly the high end fixed lens compacts improve. The LX100, RX10 and FZ1000 are already pretty amazing, if we see more development in that segment it will be tough to sell all but high end/very specialized ILCs.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. tkbslc

    tkbslc Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    I wonder what it would look like only including smartphones with decent cameras in them. Most sub $200 smartphones still have garbage cameras. As in can't even take a nice picture outside in late afternoon.
     
  8. tkbslc

    tkbslc Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Maybe. But that implies people make logical choices. People still equate SLR or interchangeable lenses with top quality and buy them even if it isn't the best fit.
     
  9. OzRay

    OzRay Mu-43 Legend

    Jan 29, 2010
    South Gippsland, Australia
    Ray, not Oz
    From the many photos I see presented by family and friends using their phone cameras, I don't think many care how good or bad the images are, they're just interested in getting an image.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
  10. Speedliner

    Speedliner Mu-43 All-Pro

    Mar 2, 2015
    Southern NJ, USA
    Rob
    What Oz said. Young generation is growing up with cameras in their phones and are quite content. To me, quality is good enough that I don't bring a P&S around any longer. Phone is always with me and P&S never is.

    When I really want to take quality images, or photos that even a quality P&S can't do well, an ILC/DSLR is the way to go.

    So in short, phone cameras are good enough these days. Optical zooms will be in phones soon. Specialty cameras will be all that's left one day.

    That may be fine for folks like us. What concerns me more is the continued consolidation that comes in mature and declining markets. All canon or Nikon have to do is come out with a killer, compact DSLR like an O-MD of their own and Olympus, Panny, Fuji are dead. Less choice means less competition, means less innovation. That would be a shame.
     
  11. tomO2013

    tomO2013 Mu-43 Top Veteran

    799
    Oct 28, 2013
    I personally don't think that the DSLR/MILC line of enthusiast cameras/lenses will ultimately go the way of the dinosaur.
    I personally think that there will always be some people who will jump into DSLR/MILC systems as a by-product of their iPhone/Nexus/Windows Phone exploration with instagram etc... but certainly I can see that it will be very much a niche market relative to the 80's. Obviously the camera phone is the modern compact camera.

    Actually another metric that I would love to see is the number of photographic prints made by home enthusiasts and photo labs relative to a few years ago.
    For me, I see a hanging print as the ultimate end-goal for shots that I take. I dread the day might come when fibre based photography paper is no longer available.
     
  12. Steven

    Steven Mu-43 All-Pro

    May 25, 2012
    USA
    Does anyone think that having all these camera phones will actually get more people interested in photography? And maybe even get them to buy dedicated cameras after they become frustrated with limitations of their phone camera?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. demiro

    demiro Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Nov 7, 2010
    I keep thinking this is a possibility. There are so many phone-tographers now that even if a small percentage want to step it up it could sustain the camera industry. But I have yet to see any evidence of that happening.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. D7k1

    D7k1 Mu-43 Top Veteran

    690
    Nov 18, 2013
    The market will find a sustaining level, and I think you will still have lots of options. But Nikon and Canon will continue to be big players and I think so will Oly (that research based thing they claim) - Panasonic might only play in the video market. What I think will happen is that the cost of entry and all other levels will go up. We are used to costs going down, but in a small market where items are luxury goods, prices tend to be and remain high. But just perhaps the overall level of photography will increase (remember there will a huge market for used stuff and entry in that market will be much lower cost for people on a real budget but who have a real desire for photography) as those buying will be intensely interested in photography IMHO.
     
  15. T N Args

    T N Args Agent Photocateur

    Dec 3, 2013
    Adelaide, Australia
    call me Arg
    A bit like showing a graph of hifi sales with smartphones included.
     
  16. tkbslc

    tkbslc Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    And those were the people buying all the crummy compact cameras in the mid 2000s. They don't really care what they take pictures on, they just need something to record the moment and get a smile. Now, literally nobody pulls out a compact camera anymore. The phone has replaced that need for basic image quality. I think those people wouldn't have been DSLR/ILC customers anyway. I suppose a small amount of overlap might exist, but it's not that large.

    But I think just looking at the number of smartphones vs cameras produced is misleading. I would be surprised if their is a phone out there anymore without an imaging module. Yet that doesn't mean everyone is using them as their main camera or even a camera at all. I don't think my dad even knows his phone has a camera. I have 3 tablets in the house and nobody uses them for imaging. Many smartphones are corporate devices that people wouldn't use for personal cameras, etc. I might even estimate up to 1/2 or even 2/3 of smartphones aren't used as a main or even secondary camera.

    That's why I said, I'd like to see the numbers including only those with "good" camera modules or maybe even those with actively used camera modules. It would still dwarf mirrorless and DSLR, but it might make a graph that looks more like the compact chart did prior to the smartphone explosion.

    The chart mainly looks bad for compacts if you remove phones from the list. Mirrorless looks to be primarily sniping DSLR sales and 2009-2011 may have been an anomaly boom period for SLR.

    graph.
     
  17. tkbslc

    tkbslc Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    But again, relevant to us, how many are using phones now that would have bought an ILC otherwise?

    Facebook says 140 bln photos, but if my feed is anything to go by, 90% of those are memes or stupid motivational quotes over stock art.
     
  18. GFFPhoto

    GFFPhoto Mu-43 All-Pro

    Feb 24, 2013
    A few things... I will not give up higher IQ dedicated cameras, but I do love shooting with my phone, and I think Panasonic has the right idea with the CM1 http://www.digitaltrends.com/photog...martphonecompact-camera-hybrid-1-inch-sensor/

    Also, the use of a smartphone as a main shooter for most people has pretty much already happened, and for the most part, I think thats OK. It really is getting to the point where you can make good photographs with your phone under most conditions. I think most people tend to overcook their smartphone photos (the instagram effect), but at this point they surpass the IQ of DSLRs from 5 or 6 years ago. Even Luminous Landscape is getting on board https://luminous-landscape.com/i-shot-it-with-my-iphone/

    So... I'm not saying phones will replace dedicated cameras or that they are as good. Nor am I saying that pros will find it anywhere close to good enough, but I like shooting with my phone, and I really like the integration of shooting, processing, and sending/posting in a small pocketable package.

    P.S. The Nik tools app Snapseed had a huge update yesterday, and all the iPhone/Android guys should get it
     
  19. GFFPhoto

    GFFPhoto Mu-43 All-Pro

    Feb 24, 2013
    The sales graph overstates the case since the camera is an afterthought for many who buy a phone, but the essence of the argument is valid. Here is a list of top posting cameras on flickr https://www.flickr.com/cameras Smartphones are the Brownie of the 21st century. You can also click on one of those smartphones and see a gallery of photos from it. Some folks are making great photos with their smartphones that are well suited to viewing on screens.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2015