Photokina 2016 Looking very important

Discussion in 'Open Discussion' started by Speedliner, Jun 1, 2016.

  1. Speedliner

    Speedliner Mu-43 All-Pro

    Mar 2, 2015
    Southern NJ, USA
    Rob
    photokina 2016 is looking like it may be a very important show this time. Some of the anticipated announcements may be determiners of some OEM futures.

    Oly has relevance hanging on the e-m1,mk2. If it fails, more Pro lenses will be less important, more pro-grade accessories will be less important and Oly may retract into a street camera company?

    Nikon is expected to announce two new prosumer/professional Mirrorless cameras, a DX and a FX model. Both with more compact mirrorless-specific lenses. Maybe not at photokina, but soon. They could be disrupters for Sony/Oly/Pany. They proved they can make a compact lens in the 300mm fresnel. Rumor is that the Nikon 1 is dying and will be put to pasture soon.

    Canon's new M3 didn't revitalize the offering, so many expect it to die soon. Will canon announce a new line of serious dslrs like Nikon. They may be forced to.

    Video and interactivity will take on greater importance. Cell phone cameras have killed thenp&s market, but they are doing more than that now. They are changing the way photographs are used. Young people today are taking photographs and video clips constantly and posting them on social media sites like Instagram and snapchat. Currently, there's little reason to upgrade your current smart phone, just like PC upgrades stalled when gaming moves to consoles. So what "killer app" will drive phone upgrades....their cameras. Consumers will upgrade to get better and better cameras to su-pet their growing visual, connected lives. What will be announced at photokina 2-16 that will finally end P&S cameras and start driving nails Into enthusiast cameras.

    Regardless of how we feel about the importance of video, new dslrs will have to excel at video and be able to interact, like a Nikon with Snapbridge which is superior to current capabilities, but still crude. This will change a lot, quickly and may become a driver of DSLR sales for a while as well. A wedding photographer won't get hired if he/she can't post a few pictures live from the event for family to see.

    So, it seems like a lot is going to be determined this year. Will Oly remain relevant and compete, or start to wither under the pressure from mainstream OEMs going mirrorless in a major way.

    Will a high-quality Nikon mirrorless bring Nikon professional service, d5-grade AF, etc... To the mirrorless market? How long before canon follows, will Sony be neutralize overnight and eventually fail? Will the a series be the first to die?

    Anyway, not all will be decided by photokina 2016 announcements, but we may be able to see how the picture will unfold.
     
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  2. hazwing

    hazwing Mu-43 All-Pro

    Nov 25, 2012
    Australia
    when is photokina?

    more cool cameras = good for all of us , bad for bank account
     
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  3. Turbofrog

    Turbofrog Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Mar 21, 2014
    Don't forget the GH5 soon to be announced. If it has 5-axis IBIS like the GX85, a multi-aspect sensor, and 4K (or 5K? 6K?) video, next-generation DFD, or even just one or two of those features, it could completely disrupt the professional M4/3 market. People wouldn't need to choose between video quality and IBIS the way they currently do, and ~13MP stills from 5K, or ~18MP stills from 6K at 30fps would be unprecedented for sports and wildlife shooters.
     
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  4. Lawrence A.

    Lawrence A. Mu-43 All-Pro

    Mar 14, 2012
    New Mexico
    Larry
    It will be interesting to see what comes out, but I never feel confident about market predictions. 43 sensors were supposed to bite the dust at least since I owned my E-300 (which was considered ugly with it's awful flat top at the time. Things do change! No pentaprism is now mirrorless sexy) The mount has changed and the mirror is gone, but the sensor size is still around and producing startling good images. Nikon is not the heavy weight of the mirrorless market, and I have my doubts they ever will be. In any event, I don't believe it is a given that their further forays into mirrorless will significantly damage the current players. As for the EM1 mrk II being the bell-weather for whether Olympus pro lense series will fly, I'd be curious to know how much of the sales of those lenses are to EM1 users. I know many of us use them on EM-5 and Pen-F bodies. The 12-40 works extremely well on the Pen and E-5, and I plan on acquiring the 300mm f4 for the same bodies. At a certain size and weight the lens is supporting the body. The E-M1 is just to bulky for 90% of what I do to invest in it to use with bigger lenses, so I'd be curious to know how current sales figures fall out for the pro line, and whether the EM5, EM10 and Pen users could support it. I honestly don't know, but I'm all ears if anyone has information that would be useful in that regard. That being said, I wish the EM1 mrkII well, since I just like the way Olympus does things and would like them to be around for a while.
     
  5. Speedliner

    Speedliner Mu-43 All-Pro

    Mar 2, 2015
    Southern NJ, USA
    Rob
    September 2016 I think
     
  6. Danny_SWE

    Danny_SWE Mu-43 All-Pro

    Apr 30, 2013
    Sweden (Gothenburg)
    I think the GX80/85 is like a prototype platform and my guess is these nice feature will come in GH5 in an even more matured version. They work very well so it will be most interesting to see what Panny and Oly comes up with now

    Skickat från min LG-H815 via Tapatalk
     
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  7. Speedliner

    Speedliner Mu-43 All-Pro

    Mar 2, 2015
    Southern NJ, USA
    Rob
    Canon is expected to announce the 7dmk3 as well. Lots of news this time.
     
  8. 50orsohours

    50orsohours Mu-43 All-Pro

    Oct 13, 2013
    Portland Oregon
    I mentioned this before in previous threads: how hard would it be to implement smartphone features into these cameras? It isn't rocket science to figure out "WHY" smartphones are beating real cameras - if you can't beat them, why not join them? Would things change for camera companies sales wise if you could take a shot with your em 1 and immediately post a JPEG of it on FB and or Instagram? I believe Samsung had it in some of their cameras.
     
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  9. kevinparis

    kevinparis Cantankerous Scotsman

    Feb 12, 2010
    Gent, Belgium
    Photokina itself is not that relevant/important these days.. I don't know if you have ever actually been to it, I have twice, once in 2008, working on the Apple booth and then again in 2012 as a customer

    Its fundamentally a trade show, a place where manufacturers interface with distributors and dealers first and foremost with actual end user customers allowed to look but often not touch the actual products... you certainly can't buy anything there on the day..

    Its spreads across numerous halls, entire halls dedicated to Wedding Books and such supplies, to lighting, and even to photo printing booths

    These sort of events, back in the day when every town had a camera store, and there was no internet, served a function.. today I am not so sure. They live on because the exhibitors are still addicted to the expense account bonanza for wining and dining clients.

    I have done a lot of trade shows... it was part of my work for many years... every industry has them.

    I know Apple moved away from them because they were expensive, and it was hard to get the marketing message across when everybody else was shouting at the same time!!

    I hadn't seen the Nikon mirrorless rumours... that could be interesting, but something niggles... are the Nikon userbase ready to go on that journey?

    we will see

    cheers

    K
     
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  10. pdk42

    pdk42 One of the "Eh?" team

    Jan 11, 2013
    Leamington Spa, UK
    I agree with all that Kevin, but it does seem that manufacturers still use events like Fotokina to make big announcements. I guess it's a hang over from the past, but it's still happening.

    If all the rumours are true, then the E-M1ii should be launched there - something to look forward to for sure.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2016
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  11. tkbslc

    tkbslc Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    No matter what is released, a few of us photo geeks will get excited and the other 99.9% of the world will continue their transition away from dedicated cameras.
     
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  12. Ross the fiddler

    Ross the fiddler Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Yes, but look where Samsung is now! ;)
     
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  13. 50orsohours

    50orsohours Mu-43 All-Pro

    Oct 13, 2013
    Portland Oregon
    The nikon body from nikon rumors looked like a modified Sony A7II/A7rII camera

     
  14. 50orsohours

    50orsohours Mu-43 All-Pro

    Oct 13, 2013
    Portland Oregon
    Pretty sure it wasn't due to the interface :)
     
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  15. Ross the fiddler

    Ross the fiddler Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Last edited: Jun 3, 2016
  16. Probably wondering why other corporations continue to support loss making camera divisions.
     
  17. JensM

    JensM Mu-43 Regular

    188
    Mar 6, 2016
    Oslo(ish), Norway
    As screename
    They would not be the first manufacturer to do consumer based "beta testing". :)
     
  18. Danny_SWE

    Danny_SWE Mu-43 All-Pro

    Apr 30, 2013
    Sweden (Gothenburg)
    Certainly not (but nothing wrong with that if they do their part)

    Skickat från min LG-H815 via Tapatalk
     
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  19. Speedliner

    Speedliner Mu-43 All-Pro

    Mar 2, 2015
    Southern NJ, USA
    Rob
    Well, I'm looking forward to it and the announcements that come from it. Sounds like a lot of next gen cameras will be announced there or shortly afterwards. I love my e-m1 and don't want to replace the great kit I've collected, but so many advances in pixel density, focus systems, low-light performance are coming. Like it or not, it's interesting to see the hobby change. Think of the hobby 20 years ago, when basic film had seen very little change over 100 years.

    I think the 3-year release cycle is going to be a thing of the past as the major OEMs fight for a bigger piece of a shrinking pie. They won't be able to sit on a model without some refreshing more frequently than every 3 years.

    I'm interested to see what happens with m43 over the next 5 years. Up to now, a 16mp sensor was close enough. Might still be good enough, but 16-20mp sensors will soon be dwarfed by 36-75mp sensors, add pixel shift and that's a lot of detail. I know, I know, 16mp is plenty and more doesn't matter...until you see a wide angle landscape with amazing detail, or crop of a BIF, or long pass downfield and still have beautiful detail.

    What if two years from now, we have 50 and 75 mp mirrorless dslrs from canon and Nikon with their own super sharp and compact lenses, that can also adapt existing FF lenses with full functionality and aren't much bigger than MFT cameras and the big, fast lenses MFT needs to produce high IQ in low light with narrow DOF. Where is MFT in the picture then? I hope it's had its own advances and is still impressive, but it's possible that the little engine that could is just coming up against a revolution in technology in which its format won't be able to compete. Just like my great, 40-inch Mitsubishi tube TV that was quickly outclassed by HD flat panels and had no chance of keeping up.

    It's possible,that still photos will be a microscopic niche 5 years out and 3D-holograms and short, video clips will be the norm. Social media and the way today's kids use it are making teaditional pictures passé. I'll still be out trying to snap a dramatic pic of a BIF, or a closeup of a spider's eyeball, but we may be few and very far between.

    My kids want the silver-dollar sized drone with a "tiny, but superior to their smartphone camera" that follows them, taking voice commands and recording their life in 4K 3D in real-time, posting clips to snapchat with a voice command from wherever they are. I'll still be buying dslrs and lenses, but I and they will be dinosaurs.
     
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  20. pdk42

    pdk42 One of the "Eh?" team

    Jan 11, 2013
    Leamington Spa, UK
    I hope we're not seeing the end of traditional cameras. In fact, I can't really see how we could be. Smartphones have killed the P&S market for sure, but if you want shallow DOF or a wide range of focal lengths, or uber fast subject tracking AF, or very high ISO then a larger sensor is a must. I'm not saying that real cameras won't change, perhaps radically, but social media posting is a long way from the totality of photography. In fact, I think the stats show that "DSLR" cameras and their lens systems are more popular than ever.

    As to u43 being killed off by FF, I can't see that either. Whatever technological advances come along that improve FF will improve u43 too and smaller kit with excellent IQ will always have its place.
     
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