Now Nikon is on the ropes?

[Darmok N Jalad]

Nikon posts some very bad results:
https://petapixel.com/2020/11/23/nikon-in-dire-straits-as-its-slump-is-particularly-untimely-report/

According to Japanese publication Toyo Keizai and summarized by Digicame-Info, “the prestigious Nikon is in dire straits” thanks to the deterioration of the main camera business. In the video business, which includes cameras, sales for the coming financial quarter are expected to decrease by around 40% from the previous term to 140 billion yen (~$1,338,809,640), leaving the company with an operating deficit of 45 billion yen (~$430,331,670).

When the JIP-Olympus announcement came, folks asked "where to go next?" I feared at that time that Nikon might be headed toward the same fate. Maybe it's a side point, but I'd still say it's a wait and see for us M43 users, unless you just want to go with Sony. There may still be some shakedowns headed our way. Do you think Nikon will end up with a similar sale deal as Olympus? That's a big name to fall, but I guess nothing lasts forever.

 

[Jeffcs]

I’m duel system user
Olympus
And Sony
All that said I was hoping Sony would purchase Olympus
Than keep Olympus going and implement some of the advantages of the OMD bodies into the so y lineup
My 2 cents

 

[John King]

I thought that Nikon would go before Olympus.

Sad to see.

At least Olympus cameras have (maybe) some sort of future. I hope that Nikon has too.

 

[RichardC]

Nikon posts some very bad results:
https://petapixel.com/2020/11/23/nikon-in-dire-straits-as-its-slump-is-particularly-untimely-report/



When the JIP-Olympus announcement came, folks asked "where to go next?" I feared at that time that Nikon might be headed toward the same fate. Maybe it's a side point, but I'd still say it's a wait and see for us M43 users, unless you just want to go with Sony. There may still be some shakedowns headed our way. Do you think Nikon will end up with a similar sale deal as Olympus? That's a big name to fall, but I guess nothing lasts forever.

The market for ILCs is shrinking year on year. Something has to give. Perhaps these companies slowly contract back towards their roots until they are small enough to have a sustainable business model?

 

[John King]

The market for ILCs is shrinking year on year. Something has to give. Perhaps these companies slowly contract back towards their roots until they are small enough to have a sustainable business model?

I've often thought that, Richard. But it's often much easier to grow than it is to shrink ...

 

[rezatravilla]

I'm not surprise. Nikon Z system so late entering the blood bath war (FF Mirrorless)and the other main flaw is their S lenses's price compare to the competitors.
But after Nikon who's next? i thinks Panasonic suffer huge lost too in that market. I don't see the effectiveness of the alliance between Pana, Leica and Sigma.

 

[PakkyT]

The market for ILCs is shrinking year on year.

It has shrunk some lately but over the years it really has stayed more or less steady with P&S cameras being the segment that has tanked. But problem is there is no growth in ILC at this time and business is all about growing.

 

[John M Flores]

I still contend that the Nikon 1 system was priced to fail because Nikon did not want to cannibalize entry level DSLR sales.

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

I'm not surprise. Nikon Z system so late entering the blood bath war (FF Mirrorless)and the other main flaw is their S lenses's price compare to the competitors.
But after Nikon who's next? i thinks Panasonic suffer huge lost too in that market. I don't see the effectiveness of the alliance between Pana, Leica and Sigma.

From what I gather, FujiFilm also lost the ground they had gained recently. Sony and Canon seem to be the healthiest right now. I’m not sure where that leaves Panasonic, but they do enjoy a bit more comfort by being part of a larger company.

 

[Brownie]

If someone would market a camera with a phone built in they'd be all set.

I can see the market narrowing down to a few select brands. Although to be honest, I always figured Canon and Nikon would the the last standing.

Part of Sony's success was the A-Mount, which they've now abandoned. Their E-Mount lenses are any better priced that the other brands, generally speaking.

I think Panasonic will stay but in video, with stills cameras either falling by the wayside completely or being a weak afterthought. I think they'll give up the standard SLR looking bodies with the fake pentaprism bump and go with the now BGH1 to set themselves apart from the other guys, whoever that may be.

Even though I may not care about owning some brands, any of them going belly up will have a negative affect on the entire industry.

 

[Bushboy]

I find it inconceivable that Olympus or Nikon cameras will not be around. They should consolidate. Just a few good models from each manufacturer, and a handful, maybe 10 or so lenses.
I have never understood, why, they make so many different models?
The good gear is expensive, and there is no incentive for the youth, only a handful of diehards/oldfarts are buying the stuff. 99.9% of the population are simply using a phone, or buying the bridge camera super zoom. Interchangeable lens cameras make no sense to most people... Times are a changing.
They just need to make good basic stuff, for people who wanna be photographers.
And stop ripping us off. (I just looked at the price of an Olympus 900 flash unit) come on now, REALLY! Why would you do this to your customer base?
Old people with too much money... No newcomers. The end.

 

[RickinAust]

If I was a camera manufacturer I would be worried about a Chinese firm entering the market. I don't mean a cheap product but something mid to high end at a very competitive price. You just need to see what they have done to the smartphone market. However, there is probably not a large enough market out there to justify the R&D for them to be profitable.

 

[WT21]

Just more fuel for my strategy to stay with the system that I prefer - m43 - as there is enough used gear out there. Probably adjust in 3 years or so to whatever remains - proabably canon, Sony and one or two niche players

 

[D7k1]

Panasonic really developed the hybrid still/video camera and they have a full M43 system. I think you will see at least the Gh6 type of camera and a perhaps a Gxx and G camera - Indy, Web, photo journalist, and also the need for a B roll stills/video camera like the Gh series. We will know when the GH6 comes....Panasonic sales M43 is important and 2 new cameras this year and probably a Gh6 early next year and a G10 later in 2021 or 2022. Who knows but the Gh6 is a real professional video camera and if that new sensor is real still a very valuable tool in a videographers/film makers kit. If 40 or 50% of the Oly users switch to Pany cameras for still imaging that is just added revenue. I am sure the G10 which Panasonic says is one of their best sellers just reuses technology from the Gh6 and if they keep the costs down IMHO at $997 or even $1200 it is a great camera. But who knows, in a year or so we will all have seen the market play out and see who remains.

 

[Erich_H]

I've often thought that, Richard. But it's often much easier to grow than it is to shrink ...

That, John, is why the planet as a whole is in the state it is in!

 

[John King]

That, John, is why the planet as a whole is in the state it is in!

You're not wrong, Erik ... .

 

[Aristophanes]

If someone would market a camera with a phone built in they'd be all set.

I can see the market narrowing down to a few select brands. Although to be honest, I always figured Canon and Nikon would the the last standing.

Part of Sony's success was the A-Mount, which they've now abandoned. Their E-Mount lenses are any better priced that the other brands, generally speaking.

I think Panasonic will stay but in video, with stills cameras either falling by the wayside completely or being a weak afterthought. I think they'll give up the standard SLR looking bodies with the fake pentaprism bump and go with the now BGH1 to set themselves apart from the other guys, whoever that may be.

Even though I may not care about owning some brands, any of them going belly up will have a negative affect on the entire industry.

The ILC is is becoming extremely niche and has fallen too far behind the advanced processing of the smartphone industry to ever catch up. We are talking billions of $$ of revenue going into phone cameras compared to maybe 10s of millions of $$ into ILCs.

There are too many ILC competitors eating each other's lunch. There's a major problem in Japan with certain industries and brands devolving into non-viable status a a result, with companies like Samsung and Lenovo and Huawei taking market. Panasonic, Canon, and Fuji have investors pressuring returns on all product lines, so if the photo and video industries cannot find reliable and profitable customer bases, they will be cut off. We saw this with Panasonic's silicon divestment.

Canon and Nikon are the two dominant photography brands, with Sony and Fuji playing spoilers. It's difficult to say where long-term opportunities lie, but clearly the JIP takeover of Olympus was a sign of weakness and perhaps a terminal decline overall for the dedicated camera industry. With only 5-6 million units per year, there may be room for only a single player in the secular term. That's where consumer purchasing power meets economies of scale. If it wasn't for the peculiarity of integrated optical design, as an electronics industry, the photographic brands and market would have been entirely swallowed up by now into larger enterprises. That may have been Samsung's strategy. Canon looks to be merging its pro video with its other optical and video programs. Sony, too. Panasonic as well, though their dominant tele-video is Super16 (APS-C) and there have been major questions about Panasonic broadcast since they sold their sensor division. Whether or not Olympus (and Pentax) can stagger on as boutique brands reliant on Sony sensors is the open question.

 

[phigmov]

I do kind of wonder how much x-subsidy there is in these brands. Sony, Canon & Panasonic are consumer electronics power-houses. Even Fuji to a certain extent does other stuff (also Ricoh). But Nikon & Oly are pretty much optics/camera companies (sure they do medical & scientific imaging, binoculars etc). On the other hand, companies like Leica, Sigma (how do they even make money on their cameras?), Hasselblad (ditto, the weird rebranded Sonys were nuts), Zeiss Voigtlander (staying in the film-rangefinder game as long as they did must have cost a fortune) are quite specialised and they seem to still do OK.

You also get stuff like phones superceding watches but watch companies also seem to be doing OK - even mass market ones like Citizen, Seiko or Swatch.

I'd like to think Nikon or Oly can just restructure their finances, find a niche and ride it out or merge with a big-brother and retain their identity (like Pentax).

 

[Mike Wingate]

They have not gone, Olympus has just had a restructuring and going through a change of ownership. Same as the Mini car went from an iconic British car to a really good German made car. In 10 years time we will be using object, appliances and technology that does not yet exist. Leica and Hasselblad were always quality products at a high price. They have gone through management and ownership changes, but are still quality products with a keen following.

 

[BDR-529]

I do kind of wonder how much x-subsidy there is in these brands. Sony, Canon & Panasonic are consumer electronics power-houses. Even Fuji to a certain extent does other stuff (also Ricoh). But Nikon & Oly are pretty much optics/camera companies (sure they do medical & scientific imaging, binoculars etc).

Just one more time: Olympus has not been a camera company for half a century. They are in medical/scientific (optical) business and only 8% of revenue came from their consumer product unit before they finally decided to stop throwing good money after bad and dumped it to JIP. Cameras were nothing more than a very expensive hobby which Olympus kept way too long just for the old times sake. Note also that Olympus/JIP has never ever mentioned the word "sale" in any official communication which indicates that if money changed hands in the transaction, it did not go from JIP to Olympus.

Nikon is currently the only real "camera company" left because some 40% of their revenue comes from cameras and desperate measures are needed if that unit sinks deep into red because the whole company will end belly up pretty quickly. Even at Canon over 80% of revenue comes from something else than cameras so they have the same option as Olympus if business goes pear-shaped.