Micro Four Thirds might "vanish" by 2018?

Discussion in 'Micro 4/3 News and Rumors' started by DeeJayK, Jun 11, 2013.

  1. DeeJayK

    DeeJayK Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Feb 8, 2011
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    Roger Cicala has written a thought provoking post on his LensRentals blog titled Whose Camera Will I Buy in 2018? In the article he ponders what changes the industry might undergo in the next 5 years.

    His outlook for :43: is not exactly bright (emphasis mine):

    Obviously this is just one guy's opinion. Do you guys think he's on to something?
  2. rhoydotp

    rhoydotp Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Aug 5, 2012
    Toronto, Ont
    Interesting but one can never know nowadays. It really depends on how the consumer picks up on the next couple of years. With the way phones are improving and (hopefully) if the price of full-frame DSLRs starts going down, it may very well happen.
  3. RT_Panther

    RT_Panther Mu-43 Legend

    May 4, 2011
    I'm not a one-brand/one format ****** (i.e. I'm open to all options). :smile:

    IMHO (yeah we've all got one) the most interesting thing going on now is the progression of the Sony "RX" full frame mirrorless bodies.

    Second most interesting thing is watching Fuji mature like Micro Four Thirds did. We all know that the 1st generation Micro Four Thirds bodies had some growing pains - it's no different with Fuji.

    The third interesting development is the Olympus/Sony "alliance" and what appears to be a fledgling Panasonic/Fuji "alliance".

    Bookmark the link & revisit this thread in 2018 :biggrin::biggrin:
  4. rklepper

    rklepper Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Dec 19, 2012
    Iowa, USA
    If my current kit lasts 5 more years I will be happy to move on to something else. I guess my warranty is good through 2016 anyway so not a real concern.
  5. GaryAyala

    GaryAyala Mu-43 Legend

    Jan 2, 2011
    I think we may have a different spin as we all own µ4/3 and hang in this forum. In reality, I don't see µ4/3 out there in the public. The vast majority is cell phones, then dSLR's. I see more P&S than I see µ4/3, and most agree that P&S has been harpooned and left floundering by cell phones (at least harpooned).

    Without some real marketing dollars dump into µ4/3, good as our µ4/3 cameras are, good as our µ4/3 cameras are gonna get ... Cicala may be reasonably accurate. Oly and Pany need to share advertising dollars as well as mounts. (µ4/3 needs to counter Ashton Kutcher ... maybe Chuck Sheen is available ...)

  6. nstelemark

    nstelemark Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    May 28, 2013
    Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
    It will be interesting to see where the video market goes with m43. And what Canon's response to the ML raw hack is. m43 is more than stills.

    I would agree that m43 is not making a dent in NA on the entry level DSLR market. Sony does well on brand recognition. Oly - not so much.
  7. DeeJayK

    DeeJayK Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Feb 8, 2011
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    Since the kind of "real" marketing dollars it would take to compete with the big boys don't appear to be forthcoming from either Olympus or Panasonic, perhaps you can just embed yourself at Samy's. That might be the format's best bet.
  8. GaryAyala

    GaryAyala Mu-43 Legend

    Jan 2, 2011
    LOL!!!!!! Or maybe I can strap myself to one of those mobile billboards armed with a megaphone.

  9. Cruzan80

    Cruzan80 Mu-43 All-Pro

    Aug 23, 2012
    Denver, Co
    Sean Rastsmith
    Over here, I see more Pens and GF/GX than NEX. Still have yet to see an OMD in the hands of a shooter. They are both vastly outshone by the CaNikons, and about equal to Sonys.
  10. madogvelkor

    madogvelkor Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Feb 22, 2013
    I don't know... as widespread as it is, I kinda see the APS-C format as the one at risk. FF prices are dropping, and FF mirrorless has a lot of potential.

    Perhaps not by 2018, but cameras like the 6D are catching in on the price of the better crop sensor DSLRs. In another 5 years only the entry level cameras might be using that size sensor.
  11. DeeJayK

    DeeJayK Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Feb 8, 2011
    Pacific Northwest, USA
    I think the APS-C format is already feeling the pinch. From one side the FF price-points are dropping, and from the other side the mirrorless systems have bridged the gap in quality while offering size advantages. I would almost say that APS-C is already being restricted to the entry level and it wouldn't shock me if it were dead in five years.

    However, since the major APS-C players also have FF offerings, I don't see the format's demise having any major impact w/r/t to the players in the marketplace.
  12. Hyubie

    Hyubie Unique like everyone else

    Oct 15, 2010
    If they do disappear, hold on to yours. The value will shoot up then! :biggrin:

    But I don't see it as improbable. As mentioned earlier, I just don't see much of it out there. I counted it as a major milestone when I saw another parent toting an E-PL3 with the 40-150 in my kids' school. Add that to the one or two I regularly see around Boston's Financial District-South Station-Chinatown area, and that makes 4 of us in my surrounding area. (Or maybe I'm just not out there most of the time :biggrin:)
  13. elandel

    elandel Mu-43 All-Pro

    Apr 16, 2010
    Milan, Italy
    I agree; marketing is the trick and Oly sucks in that area.
  14. dougjgreen

    dougjgreen Mu-43 All-Pro

    Jun 5, 2013
    San Diego
    Doug Green
    My take is, if one of the major M4/3 players bails, the other one will be positioned to do pretty well for the following few years.
  15. Steven

    Steven Mu-43 All-Pro

    May 25, 2012
    He does not offer any good reasoning to back that up.
    The Zeiss thking is clear , to me anyway - they want to sell their lenses for a high price so they have to go with a more high priced boutique brand that attracts big spenders and that is obviously Fuji. Sony uses same size sensor so its no big deal to make a copy for them as well.
  16. WT21

    WT21 Mu-43 Legend Subscribing Member

    Feb 19, 2010
    Fuji makes retro niche products for people who can't quite afford Leica.

    Oly, with financial backing from Sony (and if Sony is not intd in the photo stuff, why are they swapping tech already??) makes nice, compact cameras with great quality output.

    Who's in the better position?

    If consumer cameras disappear, it will be a large swath of them -- not just 43. APS-C is just as likely (if not more so) to disappear, swallowed up by cell phones on one end and small full frame on the other.
  17. RichDesmond

    RichDesmond Mu-43 Top Veteran Subscribing Member

    Nov 18, 2011
    Like most of his articles, interesting, well done and a good read.
    One thing he did fail to mention is that the smaller mirrorless players (i.e. everybody but Canon and Nikon) have been granted some breathing room by the failure of the big 2 to offer anything compelling and competitive in that space. It will be interesting to see who takes the best advantage of that.
  18. Pecos

    Pecos Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Jan 20, 2013
    The Natural State
    The bottom line is - "Who knows?"
    If does give one pause to think that his system may not be produced or supported in the future. But there will no doubt be equally or more-capable systems available at competitive prices then.
  19. Halaking

    Halaking Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Dec 17, 2012
    Los Angeles
    There are 2 solutions here.

    1) Mass production full frame MLC and selling @ EPM2's price range, make it entry level.

    2) Major channels 24 hours innovation commercials, open education centers, hire apple designer Jony Ive, change logo to apple.
  20. GaryAyala

    GaryAyala Mu-43 Legend

    Jan 2, 2011
    That's all you need. lol