Interesting Thom Article

Discussion in 'This or That? (MFT only)' started by WT21, May 8, 2012.

  1. WT21

    WT21 Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Feb 19, 2010
    Boston
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  2. nueces snapper

    nueces snapper Mu-43 All-Pro

    Don't Think He Is 'Wringing His Hands'

    I think he's telling Canon, Nikon and Fuji to fish or cut bait. That they are kidding themselves they can challenge m4/3 without a real system.
     
  3. mnhoj

    mnhoj There and back again

    Dec 3, 2011
    Los Angeles
    John M
    I like chicken. But I like eggs more.
     
  4. Promit

    Promit Mu-43 All-Pro

    Jun 6, 2011
    Baltimore, MD
    Promit Roy
    I'm selling my chickens every year for new chickens. At least eggs last! :biggrin:
     
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  5. WT21

    WT21 Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Feb 19, 2010
    Boston
    I think he's wringing his hands, because he's a big Nikon fan, and it seemed he was chiding Nikon over their choices. But, I'm likely reading too much into his article.
     
  6. Promit

    Promit Mu-43 All-Pro

    Jun 6, 2011
    Baltimore, MD
    Promit Roy
    I don't think that's quite fair -- he's been very even handed in his assessments of all the systems (mirrorless especially). Downright charitable, in some cases. His last couple articles make it sound like he's finding out that seemingly promising cameras are actually quite poor system cameras, and that he keeps coming back to his m4/3 (E-P3 actually) gear.
     
  7. Djarum

    Djarum Super Moderator

    Dec 15, 2009
    Huntsville, AL, USA
    Jason
    All nikon needs for me to jump onboard is something like Panasonic's collapsable kit zoom lens. I'd be all over it.
     
  8. nueces snapper

    nueces snapper Mu-43 All-Pro

    Yeah he IS surely a Nikon guy. Made his reputation with Nikon. But he's always criticized them when he thought they deserved it. I read his articles since he started Sans Mirror. I think he is of the opinion that both Canon and Nikon have failed to grasp the reality of mirrorless system cameras. He uses the analogy and I think it is accurate that the situation now is very much like when 35mm began to take serious market share oh so long ago. It took awhile but 35mm eventually took the lions share of the camera market and held it for a long time. Mirrorless is doing the same thing right now and Olympus and Panasonic are way out in front and may just pull off what Nikon and Canon did with 35mm.
     
  9. phrenic

    phrenic Mu-43 All-Pro

    Sep 13, 2010
    Neat article/observation. I'm a fan of Thom..seems very level-headed to me. Especially compared to some other online photo celebs who I will not name.

    The idea of aiming for the install-base first would not surprise me...just look at Sony and Nikon right now. I feel kind of bad for Samsung as they are providing bodies and lenses but just don't get any respect (being an electronics company and having a crappy sensor).

    Thankfully m43 has a big headstart for install base, body choice, lens selection and 2 companies in the standard. Despite my personal biases--being here obviously--you gotta think that the rational choice is to go with the system with 2 companies backing it and exponentially more lenses, bodies, and accessories than the other guys. If only they had some marketing and sales influence on the big box retailers to get the message across because if you explained it rationally to people I don't think it would even be a close competition.
     
  10. RT_Panther

    RT_Panther Mu-43 Legend

    May 4, 2011
    Texas
    Nikon upon release of their "1" system had 4 lenses readily available. This is more than NEX, Samsung, & Micro Four Thirds upon their initial releases. The problem for Nikon was that none of those 4 lenses were/are fast primes.

    Now what Nikon chooses to do in the future will make or break them. Sony found out the hard way that adapters only go so far.
     
  11. Aegon

    Aegon Mu-43 Veteran

    334
    Nov 3, 2011
    Portland, OR
    I didn't buy µ4/3 until the Oly 45mm ƒ/1.8 arrived.

    If it hadn't arrived, I wouldn't be here.
     
  12. oldracer

    oldracer Mu-43 All-Pro

    Oct 1, 2010
    USA
    The key thing is that those guys have DSLR businesses that they do not want to cannibalize. Hence they are desperately trying to define the mirrorless segment in a way that keeps that from happening.

    Marketing history is littered with companies who failed to realize that if they don't introduce new products that compete with their current products, someone else will. That is what is happening here, and the longer that the DSLR vendors fiddle, the more of their Rome will be burned by the barbarian hordes from outside.
     
  13. RT_Panther

    RT_Panther Mu-43 Legend

    May 4, 2011
    Texas
    Not sure what you mean here by this :confused:
     
  14. pxpaulx

    pxpaulx Mu-43 All-Pro

    Jan 19, 2010
    Midwest
    Paul
    Plus, 2x crop is about the limit (unless you're specifically looking to use a Nikon 1 for birding), otherwise when you start approaching 3x crop, using adapted lenses starts to make much (much much imho!) sense.

    The real difference between Panasonic and Olympus (m4/3) vs other brands is that they are trying to run an existing lens base for their full sized cameras, and as Thom said don't see those users as a potential market for NEW specialized lenses. So they offer up a couple of different kit type lenses and call it a day.

    On the other hand, Oly/Panny decided this new mount was their only direction (4/3 is done, I'm sure most would agree!) and fully committed to complete lens lineups for m4/3, and have done an excellent job of bringing that goal to fruition. Unless the other big brands make that commitment, they aren't going to compete.
     
  15. RT_Panther

    RT_Panther Mu-43 Legend

    May 4, 2011
    Texas
    This is where Pentax is trying to cash in on their DSLR owners with an existing lens base - hence the Pentax K-01
     
  16. oldracer

    oldracer Mu-43 All-Pro

    Oct 1, 2010
    USA
    Cannibalization occurs when customers substitute one product of a company for another one, usually more expensive or more profitable. Example, a customer that spends $1000 for a mirrorless Nikon instead of $2000 for a Nikon DSLR.

    That is something companies worry about a lot because not only is the lost sale a more expensive item, that item is usually a more mature product where design and tooling costs have largely been recovered, so on a % basis its margins are higher.

    The result, the one that leaves corpses along the marketing road, is that a new product will be somehow crippled to keep it from being an acceptable substitute for the more expensive products. Think small sensor, limited range of lenses, no eye level viewfinder, ... This creates opportunity for competitors, particularly those who do not have concerns about cannibalization in their own product lines.

    The short version: "You better be competing with yourself because if you don't, someone else will."
     
  17. RT_Panther

    RT_Panther Mu-43 Legend

    May 4, 2011
    Texas
    I held on to my NEX-3 for a bit over a year before getting rid of it because there were no native fast primes. I will give my Nikon 1 J1 one the same treatment if there are no fast primes released for it too. (Although as someone else posted, the 2.7 crop factor does allow it to bring something unique to the MILC table)

    IMHO, the "lifeblood" of Micro Four Thirds are the native fast primes. :smile:
     
  18. RT_Panther

    RT_Panther Mu-43 Legend

    May 4, 2011
    Texas
    I would debate that Olympus Four Thirds owners are facing a similar dilemma with Micro Four Thirds. Hence why a substantial amount of them would rather have an E-5 replacement rather than go OMD.
     
  19. oldracer

    oldracer Mu-43 All-Pro

    Oct 1, 2010
    USA
    Yeah. The Oly situation is a little complex. What they are doing does lead to some cannibalization but they are such a minor player in the DSLR market that being able to capture share from Nikon and Canon will be a far bigger win than their loss due to cannibalization. At least my guess is that is their line of thinking.

    All of this stuff is very clear and crisp when discussing marketing in a classroom. In the real world it is clear and crisp only looking back a year or more in the rear-view mirror. And then only sometimes.
     
  20. WT21

    WT21 Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Feb 19, 2010
    Boston

    Well, it ain't the native fast zooms :rofl:
     
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