Drop in DSLR Sales

Discussion in 'Other Systems' started by profgregorio, Oct 9, 2013.

  1. profgregorio

    profgregorio Mu-43 Regular

    May 21, 2013
    Manila, Philippines
    • Like Like x 1
  2. RoadTraveler

    RoadTraveler Mu-43 All-Pro

    Nov 23, 2012
    Interesting, thanks for sharing.

    I would not be surprised if the sales of all interchangeable-lens-cameras (ILC) sink (or have sunk), though Canon & Nikon have the furthest to fall.

    Compact/P&S camera sales have tumbled and probably won’t recover, though I hope there continues to be a niche market for top quality compacts, as my LX7 is a nice complement to my m4/3 kit.

    There will likely always be a (small?) market for those who what to use ILC and have the lenses, control, and flexibility offered by such systems. As the article states, the average consumer has decided that the smartphone cameras (with connectivity) are ‘good enough’. For those that decide they still want an ILC, will they also realize that compact systems like m4/3 (and others) are ‘good enough’ and there’s little reason for them to buy the larger and heavier 35mm-based systems?

    Time will tell.
  3. I think that mirrorless cameras have quite a ways to go to convince some DSLR consumers of where the real differences are.

    Example from the comments section of the article:

  4. RoadTraveler

    RoadTraveler Mu-43 All-Pro

    Nov 23, 2012
    I agree. The marketing machine and perceived and existing infrastructure of lens availability (even if most consumers only use a kit zoom) is huge.

    Canon and Nikon will not go quietly if they can help it, and I don't wish them ill. I'd like to see all ILC continue to do well, though I think the linked article (and many others) correctly details a shrinking market.
  5. dougjgreen

    dougjgreen Mu-43 All-Pro

    Jun 5, 2013
    San Diego
    Doug Green
    The biggest problem for ALL camera manufacturers, but to a much SMALLER extent, mirror-less ones, is that nearly everyone who needs a camera has one. and the differences between one generation and the next is no longer a compelling reason to upgrade.

    Panasonic probably just got there with the GX7, and Olympus had gotten there a year and a half ago with the EM-5.
  6. Matero

    Matero Mu-43 Veteran

    Jun 22, 2013
    I couldn't agree more. I'm just browsing info, reviews etc of OM-D E-M1 and my imagination stops, I can't figure out why I would need a better camera ever, if I buy this one. (BTW, happy user of E-P5 and recent convert from APS-C to m43)

    My skills will never exceed the capability of these new cameras. So if I now hop in, that's maybe last camera I'll buy. Maybe not really, but no other than emotional reason to upgrade...
  7. RoadTraveler

    RoadTraveler Mu-43 All-Pro

    Nov 23, 2012
    I agree as well.

    Even if Panasonic just reached this point with the GX7, I'm one Panasonic shooter who still likes his previous Gen, now 'old tech' tool, the GX1.

    Discontinued and obsolete are not the same thing. :thumbup:
    • Like Like x 1
  8. AceAceBaby

    AceAceBaby Mu-43 Veteran Subscribing Member

    Jan 21, 2013
    I think I've said it before but I think that we're about at the point (relatively speaking, not in absolutes) that everyone who wants a DSLR will already have one. I am sure that the huge majority of Canon/Nikon "Costco kit" buyers who get their camera out only on family occasions are perfectly happy with whatever they bought within the last seven years and aren't likely to wear them out any time soon. These are not people who typically care about whether their camera has spot metering, or 49 autofocus points. They will own 350Ds, D40s, etc. Maybe the older Canon owners will change up when they can't find a CF reader on Amazon.

    The mini-DSLRs will get some interest up until people who buy them realize that the lenses drag them down (literally). So there is hope for mirror-less systems when those people decide to reduce weight. Still, with most DSLRs sitting in the cabinet until birthdays/etc, weight probably doesn't concern those family members.
  9. Drdave944

    Drdave944 Mu-43 All-Pro Subscribing Member

    Feb 2, 2012
    The real death knell to these fancy cameras is the mind bending instability of the things. Is it possible to get one that "just works". A few people get their kicks from mastering the complexity of these things,just like others get off on cutting their golf score by a point. I love the feeling of accomplishment that you get from being able to operate a sophisticated machine. I just got the Panny GX-7s and am loving many of its behaviors, but the Wi-Fi is problematic. Why doesn't it just work? Joe Consumer won't tolerate nor buy such contraptions.
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  10. RoadTraveler

    RoadTraveler Mu-43 All-Pro

    Nov 23, 2012
    I believe you're correct. Again, unless one is an enthusiast, and/or actually 'prints' some large photos, the cameras that most people have (or their phones) will do the job.
  11. DynaSport

    DynaSport Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Jan 5, 2013
    This is assuming that new people aren't coming into the market, which is not correct. Many young families suddenly get interested in photography when the have young kids. Some when the kids are born, but others when the kids get old enough to start participating in things like little league. Unless people stop having kids, there will continue to be some market for cameras and some will want more capabilities than their phones give them. So, while the market may shrink, I don't see it going away.
  12. nstelemark

    nstelemark Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    May 28, 2013
    Halifax, Nova Scotia Canada
    I think the quality level became good enough a while back. What is driving the upgrade cycle? And as Mpix count goes up so does the logistical problems with dealing with large amounts of files. I shot 5000 raw files this summer, it is not a small problem.
    • Like Like x 1
  13. RoadTraveler

    RoadTraveler Mu-43 All-Pro

    Nov 23, 2012
    Good point, I completely forgot about all the new consumers.
  14. RoadTraveler

    RoadTraveler Mu-43 All-Pro

    Nov 23, 2012
    Yes, huge amounts of large files is a logistical and archival concern. This is just one reason that if I don't have a perceived need or desire to shoot RAW, I happily shoot JPEG. Still, I shoot plenty of images and the sheer volume grows rapidly.
  15. Reflector

    Reflector Mu-43 All-Pro

    Aug 31, 2013
    The people who claim smartphones will replace everything* with an attached accessory that was Kickstarted remind me of the masturbatory exercise hipster types like to participate in a circular group arrangement** by claiming collective group social media networking is the transfuturist future via 3D printed nanomachinery via a collective vegan based socially-and-morally correct individualistic centeric pro group hive.

    They are the same people who tell me I am old and that I should "throw my disgusting, huge computer of the man" away and "replace it with a trendy and correct iPad." I don't see how I would get anything done since I do have a 1st gen iPad.

    *"Bottle opener phone case" and other items (Why?)

    **The Circlejerk

    It would be more correct to say that DSLRs and really most photography equipment has saturated the low end "I don't have a clue about cameras but I will throw money at it thinking it solves all my life's problems" green square types. Like the people with a D800 with a 18-300VR mounted. Once this (awful and repulsive) market segment has been saturated, these types feel overwhelmingly fulfilled and happy with their awful photos and zero headroom to improve and an effective attitude of not improving any skills in their mediocre lives.

    This is also in the wake of Nikon botching the already horrible release of the D600, shunning away the mass majority of their capable and competent shooters and replacing them with the Ken Rockwellian "I don't know how to use a camera but my ego sure thinks I can and nobody can dispute my awfulness" types invading with their FF-aryan-master-race attitudes. Then they realized Nikon screwed them over by ignoring the shutter*** debris-and-oil.

    Maybe that's why Nikon suddenly had a lot of people jump boat and get another used DSLR after dumping their D600 at a loss. That sure won't make a sale but it'll help someone with a used D700 gain some pocket cash while they have a functional D7100 or something like that.

    ***And shutter scratching. Not only present in the D600, but the D7000 and D7100. Go find a body from the D3/D700/D300 era and before that has shutter scratching as part of normal operation. You'll find things like a D2H with 80k actuation and the shutter looks perfect.

    Then again most people don't have a clue about microeconomics or macroeconomics let alone any subject familiarity with the market segment when they write an article about it and how sales are rising and declining. Kind of like how people think 3D printing is the revolution of the future today for plastic printers while overlooking older, industrial 3D printing processes that work with metal and then displaying blatant ignorance when you bring the subject matter beyond a casual point.
    • Like Like x 1
  16. dav1dz

    dav1dz Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Nov 6, 2012
    There's a troll in Forbes comments saying how Canon SL1 has rendered mirrorless useless.

  17. drd1135

    drd1135 Zen Snapshooter

    Mar 17, 2011
    Southwest Virginia
    Someone here or over at SC has the signature line "the best camera is the one you have with you". That is a huge advantage for the phone cam. Some folks simply discover that the phone does all they really need. I'm fussy enough to not be comfy with just a cell phone shot, but as soon as the phones can do the equivalent of the XZ-1 or even the X10 then it may end up taking a good portion of my pictures simply by being in my pocket.
  18. Fmrvette

    Fmrvette This Space For Rent

    May 26, 2012
    Detroit, Michigan
    It's my fault. Since I moved to :43: I haven't bought a single DSLR...


    (Anyone remember the days of yore (aka "film") wherein one did NOT purchase a new SLR every year or two? One purchased a Nikon F and, unless one was a professional, one forgot about camera bodies and concentrated on lenses.).

    I simply don't "need" a new camera; I could use an additional lens or twelve...

    I rarely say "never" - but I can pretty much "guwarantee" that using a smart phone as a camera is NOT in my future. Telephones should be black, attached to the wall via cable, have dials, and be tough enough to crack walnuts with the handset :biggrin:.


    • Like Like x 2
  19. Camera phones are getting better and the best of them are capable of taking photos of still objects in good light that are usable for internet/web usage.

    Where they fall down is low light, the very small camera sensors are generations away from being able to produce usable photos at at ISO 6400 (like an EM-5) let alone at ISO 25,600 like a Canon 5D Mk III and the tiny sensors mean an almost complete lack of subject isolation and huge depth of field (which isn't always a disadvantage I admit).
  20. robbie36

    robbie36 Mu-43 All-Pro

    Sep 25, 2010
    rob collins
    Well if we look at the stats for the first 8 months....

    In yen value terms
    Compacts -38%
    DSLRs -18%
    Mirrorless -13%

    Canikon arent doing so bad because FF lens sales are up 22%. Incidentally the FF lens market is twice the size of the mirroless ILC camera market.

    And annual total lens sales is now a larger market than compacts.

    I think that the lens data is interesting (smaller than 35mm lens sales are flat). It shows there is still considerable demand for photographic equipment.

    I honestly believe that most of the fall off in demand for ILCs is because of a lack of new product compared to last year. Consider the cameras that were introduced in 2012 - Canon 6D, 5D Mk111, EOS-M, Nikon 800, 600, V1 Olympus E-M1, E-PL5, E-PM2, Panny GH3, Sony RX1, Sony Nex 6, Fuji XE-1.

    Now consider what we have seen this year - Canon SL1, 70D, Olympus E-M1, E-P5, Panny GX7.... that's pretty much it so far. There have been a couple of minor reiterations but not much (apart from M43).

    Now of course the lack of new product does probably reflect the fact that the technology is maturing but I dont see the ILC market itself as dying.
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