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Demise of DSLR in 8 years from now?

Discussion in 'Open Discussion' started by rossi46, Mar 15, 2012.

  1. rossi46

    rossi46 Mu-43 Regular

    Mar 1, 2012
    Just want to share my thoughts, and with some thought provoking title hehe:smile:.

    I am speaking as someone who is completely new to camera, and looking at things from a wider angle rather than just cameras.

    Well, the M43 or CSC trend now is on a rise, and biting away sales from DSLR.
    Seems like most people are willing to sacrifice some low light performance, and Dynamic range, while in other conditions no sacrifice in picture quality,...all these sacrifice in order to get a more compact cameras.

    I am just guessing, has DSLR reached full maturity in their products? While Micro 43 still at quite an early stage of development?
    Whats the progress of M43 vs DSLR since 2008 till today?
    Has M43 narrowed the gap? Or has it widened or maintained to DSLR?

    Let me pluck some numbers from the sky, can we say the newer M43 (EM5, GX1, G3) compared to DSLR medium range as below -
    Low Light - M43 is about 60% to 70% of DSLR performance
    Dynamic range - M43 is about 80% from DSLR performance.
    In rest of other shooting conditions - M43 is about 95% to 98% of DSLR.

    In my opinion, if M43 can continue to evolve and improve until they get 90% low light performance of DSLR level, and 95% of DSLR Dynamic range,...
    DSLR will be in deep trouble. So many people are already switching to M43 even with such apparent disadvantage, when the gap seriously narrows down,....I think DSLR will be running scared.
    If our eyes (much smaller size to DSLR and M43 sensor can give such a "good" views, wouldn't it be just a matter of time when technology of micro particles can do the same and even better?_

    And to add to that, not only is the hardware of M43 improving, photo editing software such as CS will continue to improve, and assist to narrow the gap to DSLR even further.

    Lets look at SIZE of other products other than cameras...
    - Mobile phones,....early models of Motorola is massively huge,...then started shrinking till it became too small, before it is "purposely" emlarged again to have big screen LCD.
    They just have made massive steps in terms of processor getting smaller and more powerful at the same time.
    - Car Engines....
    They have been getting seriously smaller and more efficient in the last couple of years,...with the supercharged technology. Old turbo engines has huge horsepower but poor torque curve, making it not usable.
    But new generations of European cars has revolutionized supercharged technology,...
    Look at Golf GTI with 2.0 litre producing 200hp and 280nm,..or their 1.4 litre TSI.
    Look at Fords,...and many more examples.

    Even BMW, who swears by their legendary in-line six cylinder engines for their mid range (about 2.5 litre to 2.8 litre), performance and super smooth vocals......
    now BMW also begins to adopt 2.0 litre 4 cylinder engines for their 3 series and 5 series replace the traditional inline 6 cylinders, due to more compact size, better power curve, torque curve and fuel consumption. Of course, purist will protest that the car has lost some characters.

    So coming back to camera,...I am convinced that going smaller will be the future direction.
    DSLR and Full Frames will not completely die,...but used by only certain professionals, such as documentaries (National Geo.) and so on, who needs to 100% optimize the quality they can use,...and these super serious pros do not mind lugging around big cameras.

    And yes,....DSLR has Optical View Finder, and M43 has optional Electronic View Finder....
    Many complaints that it is pricey and not as good as Optical View Finder.
    In my humble opinion, this is one area that has massive room for improvements,...much easier to improve compared to sensor technology and camera lense,....and these EVF will very soon become better and cheaper...

    Thanks for reading my very long and disorganized thread......:2thumbs::2thumbs::2thumbs:
    • Like Like x 1
  2. Jonathan F/2

    Jonathan F/2 Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Aug 10, 2011
    Los Angeles, USA
    I don't think DSLRs are going anywhere. While mirrorless has had to innovate to stay relevant, DSLRs still have lots of leeway and advantages to their platform.
  3. drd1135

    drd1135 Zen Snapshooter Subscribing Member

    Mar 17, 2011
    Southwest Virginia
    DSLRs will remain, but they will command a smaller portion of the market. True professionals will probably continue to have one for the foreseeable future.
  4. YouDidntDidYou

    YouDidntDidYou Mu-43 Regular

    Feb 18, 2012
    "Low Light - M43 is about 60% to 70% of DSLR performance
    Dynamic range - M43 is about 80% from DSLR performance.
    In rest of other shooting conditions - M43 is about 95% to 98% of DSLR."
    these numbers were plucked from way out the sky and are very far off the mark, the E-M5 and the forthcoming GH3 will propel mirrorless further in front than most DSLRs in many situations.
    DSLRs are dying right now and will be in critical condition in 4 years time (Canon and Nikon have shown their hand for the next 4 years)

    *many will argue that E-M5, NEX7 and the Fuji X100 already match or outperform the D4 and Mark III for lowlight performance and dynamic range

    EVF are improving all the time the Olympus E-7 and Samsung are rumoured to have electronic overlays in their OVF, with the GH3 EVF surely likely to be special as will be Sony's successor to the NEX 7
  5. spatulaboy

    spatulaboy I'm not really here Subscribing Member

    Jul 13, 2011
    North Carolina
    I thought this was another of Bhupinder's posts... LOL

    I don't think DSLRs will go away anytime soon. Both systems will coexist.
    • Like Like x 3
  6. dhazeghi

    dhazeghi Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    Aug 6, 2010
    San Jose, CA
    First, DSLRs are a camera design approach, not a performance class. There are DSLRs with great low light performance, and those with poorer ones, including several by Olympus using the exact same sensor as they use in their m4/3 cameras.

    What you really seem to be saying is that m4/3 has a major size advantage (it does) over DSLRs that use larger sensors, while the performance difference is not so large.

    I don't agree that the gap is shrinking in absolute terms - overall we're at least as far from the state of the art today as we were in 2008 - but I do think the differences are becoming less important. Fewer people need good ISO 6400 than need good ISO 3200, and so on.

    It's fairly clear that mirrorless will eventually replace DSLRs for the simple reason that they're cheaper and easier to manufacture as they have fewer mechanical parts. Whether they are m4/3 mirrorless cameras or others I think will depend on many factors, not least of which are marketing product distribution, areas where Olympus and Panasonic have traditionally been lacking.

    The bigger problem for mirrorless and for DSLRs are cell phone cameras. They're not great yet, but they're getting better and the volume is astronomical, so they have a huge amount to spend on sensor R&D. They're already damaging compact digital camera sales, but within 8 years, I suspect they will be making inroads among lower-end mirrorless and DSLR users as well.

  7. All things being equal, the performance of a Micro 4/3 sensor should always be just behind an APS-C sensor based on the difference in the physical size, with the advantage being the Micro 4/3 camera and lens combo should always be smaller and lighter given the same specs. There's no reason for a CSC with an APS-C sensor to lag behind a DSLR in sensor performance, and indeed this is true for the Sony NEX and Fuji X-Pro. Don't confuse the limitations/advantages of the sensor size chosen for Micro 4/3 as being the same for any other CSC that exists now or in the future.
  8. Jonathan F/2

    Jonathan F/2 Mu-43 Hall of Famer

    Aug 10, 2011
    Los Angeles, USA
    I think mirrorless will eventually take up the space that was occupied by APS-C DSLRs. FF/FX DSLRs will be where DSLRs will thrive. Both will co-exist.
  9. bongestrella

    bongestrella Mu-43 Veteran

    Sep 2, 2011
    Mechanicsburg, PA
    Just one man's opinion, I think my 60d's 3 year old sensor still performs favorably against the most hyped (for good reason) gh2/g3 sensors in ISO 3200 and above. So no, DSLR's are here to stay.

    With that said, today's csc cameras are usually good enough 95% of what I shoot. So there's that.
  10. linkedit

    linkedit Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Aug 6, 2010
    New Jersey, USA
    Mobile phones will continue to destroy the p&s camera market but I really don't think that SLR's are going anywhere.

    Anytime I've been anywhere where there had been a group of people (on vacation, events in my town) i have only seen someone using an m43 camera once. I do see MANY people with SLR's or their smartphones.
  11. meyerweb

    meyerweb Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    Sep 5, 2011
    I think you've actually missed the real weaknesses of m43. For most pictures, from most photographers, there's really no difference in IQ between the latest m43 cameras and DSLRs. While there's a huge measurable difference in DR or resolution between m43 and some DSLRs, if you're talking about viewing images on screen, or in all but the largest prints, I don't think there's enough difference to matter. (Unfortunately, too many people on forums pay more attention to test charts than to actual pictures, and most non-technical buyers pay more attention to megapixels than anything else.)

    Where m43 cameras fall behind, and will continue to do so for some time, is in the ability to shoot moving subjects rapidly and with high focus accuracy. In other words, weak C-AF performance, finder lag, etc.

    But 8 years is a long time in the technology world. I wouldn't begin to try to predict where we'll be in 8 years. Maybe we'll all be shooting Lytro type cameras, and arguments about mirrorless vs. DSLR will be ancient history. Or maybe technology will have advanced to the point where m43 cameras are seen as quaint relics, and no one will use anything bigger than the Pentax Q. Or maybe there will be some revolutionary new technology we can't even think of yet. Liquid lenses? Holographic 3-D imagery? Direct brain stimulation for image viewing? (Yeah, that last one is pretty out there.)

    Frankly, I don't care much. I'm choosing the technologies that work best for me today. If those technologies shift over the next 8 years, I'll shift with them.
    • Like Like x 2
  12. Ned

    Ned Mu-43 Legend

    Jul 18, 2010
    Alberta, Canada
    The new 3D Imager-AF on the OM-D E-M5 is tested as the fastest in the world (native lens vs native lens, on cameras including pro-grade DSLRs), and unlike the previous claim of the E-P3, this is NOT restricted to S-AF only, but also includes C-AF. The biggest difference in the E-M5's F.A.S.T. AF technology is its 3D Imager-AF for tracking subjects coming directly towards and away from you - in other words, the C-AF performance you speak of.

    Plus, the E-M5 also has a new mode for the EVF which allows for double the frame rate at the expense of a little bit of color clarity. This was made for shooting rapidly moving subjects and for panning. In other words, no more Finder Lag...

    So I hardly think the comment that "Where m43 cameras fall behind, and will continue to do so for some time" is an accurate statement. If the E-M5 lives up to expectations then we're already there. If it doesn't live up to expectations, then I'm sure we won't be far behind...
  13. Linh

    Linh Mu-43 All-Pro Subscribing Member

    Apr 14, 2009
    Maryland, US
    err.. I thought the fastest claim was restricted to S-AF? Robin Wong reported 3D tracking to be mediocre as well (I only mention it because he's the only one to have specifically said anything about it as far as I know).

    It still lacks compared to PDAF systems.

    This, and the fact that canikon have a huge array of PDAF lenses basically... they won't be quick to make them useless. Nikon seems to be going w/ an on sensor PDAF system. If that works out, they may get to mirrorless FF sooner than canon.

    But once technology fixes this, I wholeheartedly believe the mirror will go. What form it'll take, who knows, but it seems like there will be no need for it in the long run (at least, in the way it's used today)
  14. Ned

    Ned Mu-43 Legend

    Jul 18, 2010
    Alberta, Canada
    No, that was last year's claim in 2011 about the E-P3. The new claim for the E-M5 in 2012 has no such restrictions. They both use the "F.A.S.T." system, but only the E-M5 uses the "3D Imager-AF". I'm sure we'll find out soon enough just how good it really is...

    The idea is not to be "better" than PDAF, but to be able to keep up in what was formerly a weakness... The "better" part lies in other advantages of the system.
  15. ZephyrZ33

    ZephyrZ33 Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Nov 18, 2010
    Southern California
    Ha..I enjoyed the car analogy. Somet thoughts...

    Just like DSLR's, there will always be a place for that high displacement V8, V10 over a force-induced four or six-cylinder as said in that old adage..."there's no replacement for...displa..whatever..." Technology benefits all camps.

    From a physical and practical standpoint, high-displacement (or dslr's) will have their advantage for awhile, at least for professionals. It's all a matter of the average consumer deciding if he or she needs that kind of headroom.

    "Good enough for me" is starting to become good enough for a lot of people so I definitely see the demise in entry-level DSLR's. Hopefully in 8 years people will wonder, "Wtf is a Canon Rebel?" (or a commuter v8?)
  16. dhazeghi

    dhazeghi Mu-43 Hall of Famer Subscribing Member

    Aug 6, 2010
    San Jose, CA
    Odds are whatever mass consumers are using in 8 years, Canon will be selling a lot of them. A mirrorless Rebel by the end of this year is a likely possibility.

  17. 0dBm

    0dBm Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Jun 30, 2011
    Western United States
    Will vehicles powered by fossil-fueled engines go away in eight years?
  18. songs2001

    songs2001 Mu-43 Top Veteran

    Jul 8, 2011
    The Nikon 1 series is already faster to focus in good light than the D7000 and has built in phase detection on the sensor.

    Only problem is that Nikon for some reason decided to price it higher than their mid level cameras.
  19. Linh

    Linh Mu-43 All-Pro Subscribing Member

    Apr 14, 2009
    Maryland, US
    so the early adopters could pay for it's scaling up to FF, and get nikon to ditch the mirror before canon =)
  20. bongestrella

    bongestrella Mu-43 Veteran

    Sep 2, 2011
    Mechanicsburg, PA
    ^ Because it is as much of a niche product as a D4 is in Nikonland?
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