Canikon Won't Eat Their Own Babies...so MILC's will

Thom Hogan more or less believes that Nikon/Canon will kick the other mirrorless makers out of the game, once they introduce their versions: http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/which-chart-is-right.html.

 

One interesting prediction he makes is that Nikon may make an F-mount compatible mirrorless, but I wonder how practical it is to drive F-mount DSLR lenses using contrast detect, or would they stick with PDAF? If a small mirrorless body could mount existing lenses, I think they'd be on to a winner.

 

That's the dilemma that possibly confronts Nikon. They have the F mount that has stood the test of time and the Nikon 1 mount, so would getting rid of the mirror box mean they would have to create another mount for new lenses and make an adapter for F mount? Would they try to emulate Sony? Canon is in a similar boat. But with APS-C lenses already available, would that be enough for a mirrorless body?

 

I'm not convinced canon and/or Nikon will come out on top in that race. They need to come up with a viable mirrorless system fast. Between Sony,m43, Fuji and Samsung they have a lot to compete with, especially since they refuse to innovate in lower price segments. We will see, I guess..

 

Personally I believe that Canon and Nikon will eventually come out on top in the mirrorless race. Mirrorless isnt itself a revolutionary technology, it is more an evolutionary one. There really are few barriers of entry into getting into the mirrorless market. EVFs are made by Epsom and a mirrorless camera is a relatively simple electronic assembly. It is hard to believe that Canon and Nikon's initial foray into mirrorless were so feeble because they werent capable of building a better product. Apparent Nikon could manage the autofocus but Canon couldnt? That Nikon had to be put a substandard Sensor in their product? That both products were grossly overpriced at launch because they were expensive to produce?

Really it is relatively easy for Nikon and Canon to make a decent mirrorless camera that will take newly designed mirrorless lenses but also work well with existing lenses via an adapter. This will give existing customers a very clear strategy to convert to mirrorless over time (and a good excuse to buy more Canikon product).

And we can see the problem that say Sony faces in trying to break into the mirrorless FF market. It faces a bigger barrier to entry. Namely a lens line up that is nothing like as capable as Canon or Nikon (or their extended 3rd party support) and catching up on lenses will take a long time if it happens at all. Of course, existing Sony A users can move to FE with an adapter - it is just that there is not a lot of them. And a buyer into the FE system is unlikely to buy a Sony A lens and adapter if he didnt have a Sony A lens already.

Of course there is one very mature mirrorless system already - M43. It already has an incredible range of lenses in terms of both price and quality (although rather better on the quality than the price). The problem is that M43 has to overcome the barrier of people's obsession with larger sensors in both APSC and FF. Size was seen as the obvious advantage but how much do people really care when FF is becoming smaller and M43 is actually becoming larger with bigger cameras and lenses.

 

Nikon's 1 system already has a hybrid AF with 171 contrast-detect and 105 phase-detect points. If they had introduced the 1 with an APS-C sensor, an adapter for F-mount and a few travel lenses from the start the MILC landscape might be a bit different.

But then again they never really embraced the APS-C format either. They have released maybe 3-4 DX lenses that could be called premium/pro lenses (wide zooms, one standard zoom, and one f1.8 prime). Most everything else has been consumer/travel stuff. Sad given that was over the course of 8 years between the introduction of the D1 and D3.

 

Nikon doesn't want to play the serious photography game. They're having more fun using marketing surveys to create the perfect middle aged mid age crisis hipster camera. 58G + Df-Mirrorless is what you're going to get out of it. They stopped listening to their user base after the D3/D300/D700 trio that helped them take the lead from Canon for a while and decided that they could just sprinkle dust and spray oil on sensors and get away with it. Too bad for them, reality gave them a brick wall to run into. Bad management can't be solved with technology.

And 1? They hate their own people who work on it. Whatever size sensor they put in it wouldn't of mattered, they screwed up the menu interface so you couldn't use it as a "sidearm camera" with a DSLR. Would it change anything if they put the One True Sensor Size Known as 135 Format (The Destroyer of 645 And Bigger Formats Inferior To It) in it? No. You'd have jack squat for native lenses and they'd try to push the 58G on an adapter that clips the bokeh still and only functions with the center AF point.

I readily say this while I stare at all my F mount lenses that aren't old, C-or-lower resale grade lenses that are all newer than 2000 except for a 50mm f/1.2 AI-S and 50mm f/1.8D. They're well kept if not practically pristine and I don't intend on reselling them. Nikon just makes it really, really hard for me to stay on F mount and the moment a Speedbooster that fits the OMDs comes out I will be gone so fast because I can always adapt F to EF to have "Adaptall 2".

 

We can speculate all we want but almost anything can happen. I personally don't see Nikon doing APS or even FF mirrorless anytime soon based on what their PR people have said recently. That is unless DSLR sales drop drastically, then they will have to do something. Canon already has an APS mirrorless system, although it is a half hearted attempt. Whether they refine it into a better solution is yet to be seen. I also don't think DSLRs are dead, not yet at least. They still have a few advantages and many people prefer them. Selection is good and I do not mind DSLRs still being around, heck I still use my Nikon gear, not as much as my m4/3 but still I do use them.

I think cellphone sales are going to hurt DSLRs twice as much as mirrorless sales. Sure there are people like use who want true cameras but most people are going and have gone to cellphones exclusively for the picture taking needs. I think as cellphone cameras get better this will increase. Heck even many "pro" photographers are using cellphones for their personal uses and even promoting them as good enough. And I have to admit that even thought the sensors and lenses on cellphone cameras are tiny they do a decent job under good lighting conditions.

 

I don't think that DSLRs are going to die off because of mirrorless, I believe that they will work in parallel, each with their own set of benefits. It's like the last few years where certain experts (on Windows forums) were claiming that tablets and touch screens were going to be the death of desktop PCs (which I thought was crap), and now we are beginning to see the increase in PC/laptop sales and less touch screens vs tablets. The reality is that there is only so much that you can do effectively/efficiently with a tablet vs a decent PC/laptop.

Like with PC vs tablets, there are benefits to both depending on the situation. DSLRs are generally much more durable and have better battery life, because you can make them so due to physical size. Even if DSLRs went to an EVF, there are still benefits to the size of the cameras. Remember, not everyone is after small and light, even m4/3 users. If mirrorless can achieve the same performance characteristics, lens characteristics, and battery life/shots per charge, with size and weight benefits, then maybe there could be some movement at the station.

 

I dont know about. Read these interviews with Nikon and Canon executives from Photokina.

http://www.dpreview.com/articles/70...-interview-mirrorless-in-the-very-near-future

http://www.dpreview.com/articles/77...w-large-sensor-mirrorless-could-be-a-solution

Seems to me that 2014 has seen a fairly significant shift 'towards' mirrorless in terms of sales. (And anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that quite a few people are looking at mirrorless as their next camera.) Seems to me both Nikon and Canon are responding by 'promising' a serious mirrorless product in the near future so as to stem the leakage to Sony/Fuji/M43. Now they have to deliver. I see Thom Hogan is suggesting Q2 2015.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if canon or Nikon got in on the game. More choices are good. I think the Sony A7 series woke a lot of people up - no matter how unimportant the sensor size advantage is in many situations, it still has been a stumbling block. And even though all the Sony's feel like they're only just out if beta production in many ways, they're still incredible image making devices and resolutely modern.

 

I honestly believe all the folks who are predicting demise of CaNikon are getting it totally wrong. There is no doubt (to me) that they will launch very capable mirror-less recapturing the market and mostly retaining their share.

Irrespective of all Internet hype, CaNikon are not in hurry because they are the only camera divisions who are actually making profit and a considerable profit for that matter. Think Apple, they were never first or shall we say one of the last ones to enter MP3, Phone and Tablet market? I believe CaNikon will follow same route We need to remember they are the only two who successfully transitioned from Film to Digital and were never first there as well. I believe Pentax/Minolta were the first inventors in digital era and we know where they stand today in terms of market share.

If you look at what Canon and Nikon are doing without any bias, you will see they are steadily releasing new lenses specially compact primes. Think about Nikons all 1.8G primes which are lightweight, relatively compact for sensor size and optically great for asking price. Canon is also doing same thing, upgrading their lenses and releasing compact primes with IS before they release high MP body. So to me they are clearly working on their lens line up before they release a body.

Also remember Nikon today has the best AF technology for mirror-less in their 1" sensor. As they bring that AF capability which is actually even better than todays DSLR in some cases to APSC/FF they will be best AF mirrorless Cams with hundreds of compatible lenses. And they may not even need to even change the mount, if they can bring size down to their old film Nikons (with same F mount) they will be in much better position than anyone else.

Canon on the other hand doing something similar with their 70D, 7d II (On Sensor PDAF) and their compact primes and in recent interview have clearly declared that they will launch mirror-less soon very soon.

And last if you and me can guess all these things, I am sure CaNikon folks can too.

 

Meh. The gap between DSLRs and MILCs is becoming smaller and smaller with each new camera release. In fact, If Samsung's NX1 is any indication, CaNikon may already have been left behind.

I don't buy that they are so near to launching an advanced mirrorless system, but they may have stated so to give pause to their fans from abandoning them so quickly. Both companies suffer from having untouchable sacred cows... Do you think that Nikon, who has never even released a true D700 successor in spite of this being the single most wanted thing by their fans, because they're dead scared it will eat into D4 sales, is suddenly going to undermine their DSLR lineup by creating a credible alternative? As for Canon, when was the last time they released anything that was original and sanely priced? If they release a MILC with the weak-ass 5D3 sensor for $3000, would any mirrorless fan even turn their head?

 

That's a gross assumption that Film destroyed Kodak. Kodak was bound to film by their movie industry contracts that were created decades earlier for film use, we as still photographers forget that we always got the scraps from Kodak and were a secondary outlet for their products.

 

You guys take gear too seriously. The only thing interesting about camera equipment is the potential photographs they can capture.

As much as I dislike the current gen of Nikon cameras, their FF lens line-up is fairly up-to-date and refined. Nikon doesn't need to make a small mirrorless camera. They just need to make an FF mirrorless body that takes all F mount lenses (AF, Ai, non-Ai), price it right and they'll sweep the market in the higher FF mirrorless market.

 

I used to be a big Canon ****** but finally grew out of it. That said, I do tend to root for my system because I'm not a pro, I'm not going to have two separate systems. I've never even owned two bodies and probably never will. So I want my current format to do well, so there are products and accessories available and innovation.

 

I'm not sure why Panasonic, Olympus, and Fuji for that matter won't build up a better presence in the US market. I went to my local best buy the other day, and they had two mirror-less brands; Sony & Samsung. They also had two DSLR brands; Canon and Nikon. I know a lot of people buy online, but with a lot of exposure at stores like Best Buy, Wal-Mart etc, people will start taking the brands seriously, and have a chance to pick one up to play with etc.