This is a lens that I am set out to get. The thing is, I don't need it just yet, but in a few months time, it will become essential for my needs. I'm curious as to what you guys think the price of this lens will be in a year's time. Go up, down, or stay the same? I'm debating between pre-ordering now or waiting until next summer when I actually need the lens. EDIT: I should specify that I'm talking about the price for new directly from Olympus. Otherwise it's unfair to compare it to a refurbished or bundled price.
I'm waiting 9-12 months after they get released. Hopefully by then, the refurbs will hit the olympus site around the $1000 mark.
Hwan, I think all you can expect is occasional sales, they've had $100 off at times on the more expensive lenses. Barry
I think it will go down, perhaps quite a bit. The refurb price on the 12-40 really set the bar on the lens like new used market. The lens was $999, and the refurb price was $639. If the refurb price on the 40-150 is 40% off you now have the like new used price set.
The 12-40 lens price hasn't changed since release, other than the occasional $100 off sale. My guess is that unless there are some major problems with the lens that none of the reviews have found, the price will not drop. Perhaps it will even increase due to the demand? Has that happened before for a lens?
The retail has been fairly constant, but the refurb price has set the bar for the used price and also for all the 4/3 glass in that FL range. The aggressive refurb price really makes buying new somewhat questionable, especially since refurbs are eligible for extended warranties. $640 for a refurb + $80 for a 4 year warranty really sets the bar.
You can't really compare it to the 12-40, because the price of that lens is dictated by sellers who split kits. There is a retailer from Japan who sells them brand new for $747 by splitting from a kit. That is unlikely to happen with the 40-150mm f/2.8 I have no doubts that the price of the 40-150mm f/2.8 will drop. But in the time frame you mention, it is highly unlikely, but Olympus does have the occasional sale with $100 off and stuff like that, so maybe wait for that? Where did you see a 12-40 for $640 and how many of those were there? On ebay, trending used prices are $750-$800, which is quite normal for a $1000 lens. Right now on ebay the cheapest lens from a US retailer is $860, and that too is "pre-owned".
I can't see the new retail price dropping much if at all in the next 12 months but there will be a supply of 2nd hand and refurbished lenses available at a cheaper price for those looking to wait and save money.
The 12-40 has been on the Olympus refurb store many times at $639. I bought my 12-40 from it. I would not pay any more than $640 for a used 12-40 lens.
